With the coachspeak and player-driven hype already intensifying before the 2024 NFL season, Brad Evans examines some of the bolder claims to guide fantasy managers and sports bettors to profitability.
The Claim: Cincinnati second-year running back Chase Brown may have the inside track on the starting gig. Throughout training camp, he's received the majority of first-team snaps over Zack Moss. Taking it a step further, SI.com Bengals beat writer James Rapien predicted Brown will be the franchise’s breakout player this year.
B.S. Barometer: 1 (1 = buyable; 5 = a heaping pile).
The Spin: I-L-L! Yes, there’s an Orange and Blue bias pumping through this Illini enthusiast’s veins, but looking at the situation objectively and weighing the first-team work trend, a breakthrough campaign is very likely for the sophomore rusher. Over Brown’s last two years in Champaign, this pigskin observer watched virtually every one of his touches. Without question, he has the explosiveness, open-field jukes and pass-catching ability to wreck defenses. With Illinois, he was an efficient workhorse.
Brown isn’t a grinder between the tackles. More than likely, Moss, a proven pounder, will receive a sizable chunk of early down and goal-line work. But similar to a Jaylen Warren, Tyjae Spears or Austin Ekeler, the Canadian import is sure to earn his maple syrup in spurts.
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Last year on only 19.5% of the team’s opportunity share, the then-rookie flashed when deployed. Brown totaled 5.8 yards per touch, averaged 11.1 yards per catch and ranked RB12 in fantasy points per opportunity (0.91). He also netted a very appreciable 3.27 yards after contact per attempt and forced eight missed tackles on just 44 rushing attempts. Again, the dude, who ran a 4.43 40-yard at the 2023 combine, has JUICE.
In fantasy drafts conducted over the last month, Brown has a ridiculously affordable 134.80 ADP (RB38). That’s equivalent to finding a little-used vintage Porsche covered in a random barn. Touchdowns may be somewhat infrequent, but, at a minimum, he’s destined for 11-13 touches per game, possibly more.
With Slim Shady slinger Joe Burrow healthy and given Cincinnati’s top-half offensive line, breakout prognostications about Brown are warranted. Yes, the Bengals have the sixth-hardest fantasy RB strength of schedule, but getting down with Brown — especially in PPR formats — is the proper move. In the end, 1,000 combined yards with a handful of TDs and 45-plus receptions aren't some pipe dream. He’s a must grab in the double-digit rounds.