With the coachspeak and player-driven hype already intensifying before the 2024 NFL season, Brad Evans examines some of the bolder claims to guide fantasy managers and sports bettors to profitability.
The Claim: Local reporters and Lions players believe wide receiver Jameson Williams is poised for a breakout campaign. At the team’s training camp, boots on the ground noted he “looks stronger and more explosive,” while Amon-Ra St. Brown said he believes “this year is gonna be huge for (Williams)."
B.S. Barometer: 3.5 (1 = buyable; 5 = a heaping pile).
The Spin: A shot of Jameson or three at your fantasy draft? Don’t shun it. Heck, don’t stiff-arm any libation if gathering in person with friends to partake in the fake football festivities. It’s an annual rite of passage, damn it.
As for the other buzzy Jameson, the coachspeak and player-driven hype is rather strong on this one. Don’t buy what Dan Campbell and cohorts may threaten your kneecaps, but don't buy what they're selling.
As it stands, Williams is presumably the third option for Jared Goff. St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are sure to gobble up targets, and Jahmyr Gibbs’ role as a pass-catcher is set to expand.
What does that mean workload-wise for the former Alabama burner? In an offense that called “pass” only 56.55% of the time in 2023 — the ninth-lowest amount in the NFL — the meat on the bone is a scant portion. Remember, St. Brown and LaPorta accounted for 46.9% of the team’s target share last year. Williams will have his moments, but 85-95 looks from Goff are foreseeable.
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Then there’s the unsightly advanced numbers. Williams’ blazing speed and occasional splashy plays open eyes. However, under the hood, the Lambo is gushing oil. Last season, he finished WR104 in route win percentage, WR58 in win rate against man coverage, WR38 in average separation per target, WR56 in yards per route run and WR75 in expected points added. Again, grab a drip pan.
Williams’ average depth of target finished inside the WR top 10, which denotes considerable air yards upside, but with a minimized red-zone role and other mouths to feed, drafters shouldn’t snap tendons reaching for his services in the single-digit rounds of 12-team leagues. The breakout potential is fair to middling.
Williams is appropriately priced at his current 126.25 ADP (WR48) in 12-team 0.5 PPR leagues ($4.13 AAV for salary cappers). A final tally around 50-750-4 is most likely.