The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. Matthew Stafford OVER 1.5 first half pass TDs vs. Cardinals (+200, BetMGM) - In a dead-heat race with Dak Prescott for the NFL passing yards title, neck-and-neck with Drake Maye for MVP and with the Rams still jockeying for postseason position (Maybe), Stafford has plenty to play for. It’s why Sean McVay said earlier this week his starters weren't resting. The last time he faced the Desert Birds, the graybeard spun only one passing score in the first frame. This season, however, he’s routinely stormed out of the gates, totaling 19 passing TDs while completing 64.5% of his attempts before halftime. Entering the final stanza, Arizona ranks No. 30 in dropback EPA defense since Week 10. Over their last seven games, they’ve given up a half dozen multi-TD passers. Before a likely second-half hook, Stafford fires and completes at least two TDs.
BetAlytics Projection: 1.68 pass TDs (full game)
2. Caleb Williams OVER 234.5 pass yards vs. Lions (-115, BetMGM) -- Off a performance in San Francisco that had many onlooker pants uncomfortably tight for hours on end, Williams is on the brink of making franchise history. Never in the Bears’ 105-year history has a passer spun 4,000 yards in a single season. Just 270 yards short of the milestone and with the No. 2 seed in the NFC on the line, Williams is fully prepared to pop off. Injuries and ineptitude have sacked Detroit’s secondary over the season’s second half. Since Week 10, Dan Campbell’s crew slot No. 20 in dropback EPA defense. Stretching out over 16 games, they’ve allowed a healthy 7.27 pass yards per attempt and 236.8 pass yards per game. In total, seven QBs have eclipsed 235 vertical yards against them. The former No. 1 overall pick has delivered the goods in recent weeks, surpassing 240 pass yards in three straight. His top-three standing in air yards and commendable No. 13 ranking in deep-ball completion percentage arrow to the streak continuing. Bear … UP!
BetAlytics Projection: 250.49 pass yards
3. Bijan Robinson 150+ rush/receiving yards vs. Saints (+163, DraftKings) -- Unbeknownst to many, Robinson is 255 combined yards away from catching Chris Johnson’s unreal single-season yards from scrimmage record (2,509). What’s most asinine? The popular No. 1 fantasy football pick is +3500 to win Offensive Player of the Year at BetMGM. How?! Why?! GTFO! With one last chance to convince voters he’s deserving, look for him to ball out in a game with potential playoff influence. Yes, the Saints are No. 3 in rush EPA D since Week 10, but they have conceded the seventh-most rush yards to RBs this year. Drilling down, the Fleur de lis has allowed 4.11 yards per carry, 106.1 rush yards per game and 24.3 receiving yards to the position. With history on the table, Bijan, who’s No. 1 in missed tackles forced (84) and No. 2 in yards after contact per attempt (4.04), should put a bow on top of his spectacular season. No gift receipt required. Keep in mind, he's totaled at least 150 combined yards in three straight.
BetAlytics Projection: 61.43 rush yards, 46.06 receiving yards
4. Kenneth Gainwell OVER 4.5 receptions vs. Ravens (+115, BetMGM) -- In the AFC’s Super Bowl of Suck, Pittsburgh’s shifty multipurpose back should flash his mitts. Yes, the winner earns its place in the NFL postseason, but the accomplishment is unlikely to strike fear into any future foe. Both have grossly underachieved. Still, in what could be a negative script for Pittsburgh, Gainwell is sure to pile up the checkdown looks. In the Week 14 bout versus Baltimore, he caught six-of-seven targets, sprinting out on a route 18 times. His biggish target share (16.0%) along with the Ravens' vulnerability in short-field coverage -- they’ve yielded the fourth-most receptions to the position this season (5.1 per game) -- suggest he’s a strong candidate to cash. Seven times this season he’s grabbed at least five passes in a game. With all the marbles on the line and given Aaron Rodgers’ propensity for dump-offs, Gainwell won’t drop the ball.
BetAlytics Projection: 2.26 receptions
Season record: 28-35, -7.18 units (Last week hurt!)