Island NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks. As always, fade or follow -- that’s up to you.
The Pick: Kyle Monangai OVER 43.5 rush yards at Niners (-115, BetMGM)
Returning to their black and blues run-heavy roots in recent weeks, the Bears have racked ground yardage like NetFlix has ratings for the second Stranger Things Season 5 episode drop.
Appeasing the football ghosts of Gale Sayers, Walter Payton, Neal Anderson and Matt Forte, Ben Johnson has leaned on his 1-2 punch at RB 47.11% of the time, the seven-highest run rate in the NFL this season. The battles fought and often won in the trenches -- the Windy City reps are at No. 4 in EPA per rush -- have become the backbone of Chicago’s scheme.
With the offensive line top five in run-blocking efficiency according to Pro Football Focus, the old school approach is a major reason why the artists formerly known as the Mice of the Midway have regained their Monsters moniker. In these chilly winter weeks, the Bears have and will continue to steamroll doughy D-lines. Improvements on defense have only assisted in the flattening.
The seventh-round rookie from Rutgers has unsurprisingly risen up the ranks as the season has worn on. His zone familiarity and devastating downhill running style mesh perfectly with Johnson’s rushing principles. Working in concert brilliantly with D’Andre Swift, the youngster has accumulated 61.5% of his yards after initial contact since Week 10. Averaging 13.3 rush attempts in his last six games, he’s plowed ahead for at least 44 rush yards four times. He is what you call a “lively grinder.” Yes, allow your sophomoric mind to have a chuckle.
When it comes to defending the run, the Niners have repeatedly fallen deep into a mineshaft. Since Week 10, they’re a lousy No. 22 in rush EPA defense. On the season, they’ve surrendered a sizable 4.37 yards per carry and 87.9 rush yards per game to RBs. A dozen opposing rushers have crossed the 44-yard mark against them.
Chicago is abuzz with football excitement for the first time in eons. With a chance to sew up the NFC North title and given the Gold Panners’ primary defensive vulnerability, expect a heavy ground-and-pound display by the Bay.
Obligatory dad-joke, “Who’s middle-aged and always willing to chase a player prop? This Monangai.”
Accept the punchline pain, fellow gamer.
NO CONTEXT PARLAY PLAY: SGP - Chicago +7.5, Game 40.5o, Christian McCaffrey anytime TD, D’Andre Swift 40+ rush yards (+158, DraftKings)