The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. Isaiah Likely anytime TD at Bengals (+240, DraftKings) -- When it comes to defending the tight end, the Bengals are a team comprised of Cousin Eddies completely sloshed on cheap beer and eggnog. Yep, THAT hammered. This season, they've given up a mind-blowing 97 receptions for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns to plus-sized targets. Putting that in historical perspective, Brock Bowers owns the NFL single-season receiving yards record with 1,194. Meanwhile, Rob Gronkowski's all-time single-season high in TE touchdowns (18) is in jeopardy. Yes, Mark Andrews will wrest away red-zone targets, but the former Chanticleer saw action on the second-most snaps of his season in Week 14, attracting six targets while catching four passes for 25 yards and a touchdown. At no. 17 in red-zone target share (18.4%) among TEs, he’s a probable scorer as his last name implies. Again, Cincinnati is hilariously ill-equipped to defend the position. Maximize the matchup, gamer.
BetAlytics Projection: 31.1% TD chance
2. Nico Collins OVER 73.5 rec yards vs. Cardinals (-110, Score) -- The Texans -- including Nico -- are sure to dig in their spurs against Arizona's group of rodeo clowns. Over the last five weeks, the Desert Birds are a horribly bland No. 19 in dropback EPA defense. Overall this season, 11 wide receivers have reached at least 74 receiving yards against them. Most encouraging, Collins' projected primary assignment, CB Denzel Burke, has surrendered a mouthwatering 61.1% catch rate to his assignments. Mix in the WR1s featured role (8.6 targets per game) and downfield explosiveness (WR5 air yards; WR19 in YAC), and confidence on the over raises. Oh, and he's also eclipsed 73.5 yards in five of his last six matchups. Given the heightened stakes of every remaining Texans game, Nico should continue to nuke the competition. Our friends at BetAlytics, however, vehemently disagree.
BetAlytics Projection: 50.54 receiving yards
3. James Cook UNDER 81.5 rush yards at Patriots (-115, Score) -- Similar to the Griswold turkey in "Christmas Vacation,' the Wolfgang Puck of running backs is bound to overcook the bird. His on-paper matchup isn't exactly tasty. New England’s trench enforcers are undeniable warriors. Cory Durden and friends may rank only No. 23 in rush EPA D since Week 9, but this season they’ve allowed a mere 3.67 yards per carry, 66.2 rush yards per game, four total touchdowns and the fewest fantasy points to RBs. On the ground, Chase Brown is the only rusher to crack 70 yards against them. Unrelenting. “Spectacular” best describes Cook’s phenomenal season. On 75.9% of the team’s opportunity shares, he’s racked 100+ rush yards in seven contests. Equally dynamite under the hood, he’s currently RB3 in missed tackles forced (49), RB14 in yards created per touch (3.65) and RB5 in yards per touch (5.7). Again, on a per grip basis he’s been ultra efficient. However, similar to the first matchup -- he ran for only 49 yards on 15 carries -- Cook underwhelms when fantasy managers need him most.
BetAlytics Projection: 56.87 rushing yards
4. Omarion Hampton OVER 12.5 rush attempts at Chiefs (+105, BetMGM) -- In his triumphant return to the lineup last week in an overtime victory versus Philadelphia, Hampton resembled the pre-injury battering ram all gamers had hoped. Yes, he was immersed in nearly an even 50-50 timeshare with Kimani Vidal, but Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman were clearly easing him back in. Thanks to the bonus session, he did record 13 carries, but his 31.1% snap share frustrated many. Bank on that number doubling in Week 15. The Chiefs -- on life support and are in desperate need of win -- are at home, but floundering defensively, they're a beatable unit. This season, they've given up a healthy 4.14 yards per carry to RBs. In total, seven running backs have gripped the pill at least 13 times in a game against them. With a game under his belt, Hampton will likely be a point of emphasis in a game with mammoth postseason implications for both participants. Back the Bolt.
BetAlytics Projection: NA
5. Caleb Williams UNDER 29.5 pass attempts vs. Browns (-103, DraftKings) -- You know some jackass -- presumably 10 beers in -- at Soldier Field will decide to endure arctic temperatures over four quarters with his bare-chested bird free from its cage. Yep, the odds are -10000. The game-time temp for Browns/Bears is expected to hover around 10 degrees with the windchill value approaching 10 below. Major shrinkage. Under Ben Johnson -- an individual who also isn't fond of restrictive shirts -- the Bears have been one of the league's most run-heavy teams. Pounding the rock over 48% of the time the last three weeks, he could lean even heavier on the 1-2 cold weather punch of D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. Williams has tossed at least 30 balls in seven straight games. However, given the conditions and Cleveland's sudden vulnerability in the trenches (No. 19 rush EPA D last five), the QB is likely to resort to numerous handoffs.
BetAlytics Projection: 26.81 pass attempts
Season record: 27-31, -3.03 units