The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. Stefon Diggs 60+ receiving yards at Bengals (+113, DraftKings) -- Not only does New England's WR1 possess strong swimmers, he's also one of the stickiest fingered receivers in the league. Despite a fractured digit, he's proven prolific in recent weeks, becoming Drake Maye's indisputable preferred target. The weapon of choice has hauled in 35 receptions over his last five games, averaging 54.4 yards per game. Most alluring, he's WR8 in yards per route run (2.47), No. 4 in expected points added and No. 18 in yards after catch among qualifying WRs. Facing a Bungles defense flirting with dead last in dropback EPA D (No. 31), Diggs should coast past the number above. His projected dance partner, slot corner Dax Hill, has yielded the 13th-most yards of any NFL DB while also allowing a 75.9 catch% and 110.3 passer rating to assignments. Toss in Drake Maye's precise passes along with the sky-high expected game total (50.5) and it only increases confidence.
BetAlytics Projection: 81.02 receiving yards
2. Andrei Iosivas OVER 32.5 receiving yards vs. Patriots (-115, BetMGM) -- In the same game, but featuring a different name, Iosivas is the definition of "plug and play" material. Chase's disputed spit at Pittsburgh's Jalen Ramsey last week cost the uncoverable WR1 this week's contest against New England. His 11.7 targets per game will be spread around, but bank on Joe Flacco -- or possibly Joe Burrow -- to lean more on the sure-handed slot man. As previously discussed, Iosivas has performed well when called upon. He's averaged an appealing 13.5 yards per reception, topping the needed number as a bit player three times this season. Yes, the Patriots are outstanding defensively, but expected to line up primarily against CB Marcus Jones, he has excellent odds of exceeding 50 receiving yards. This season on 345 coverage snaps, the slot corner has given up a 71.8 catch% and 109.5 passer rating to assignments. Fantasy managers and profit seekers should purchase a ticket on the elevated WR3 in a game with plenty of shootout appeal.
BetAlytics Projection: 59.38 receiving yards
3. Aaron Jones OVER 2.5 receptions at Packers (+105, DraftKings) -- REVENGE GAME!!! Loved in Green Bay, Senor Sombero was a fixture in the Packers backfield for seven years, amassing over 8,000 total yards during his time in Northern Wisconsin. Still one of the most reliable check-down options in the league, he should be a short-field staple for a still very green JJ McCarthy, This season in 10 games, Jones has averaged 15.5 routes per game, sprinting out for a pass on 48.7% of his snaps. His 59.1% catch rate is undesirable, but he's grabbed at least three passes in three of six games. Most encouraging, Green Bay has proven ultra-kind to pass-catching backs. Entering the week, Matt LaFleur's group has yielded the eighth-most receptions (5.1 per game) to the position. In total, seven RBs have caught three or more passes against them. Add in the negative game-script possibility and Jones is an excellent tail at plus money. SKOL!
BetAlytics Projection: 1.79 receptions
4. David Montgomery OVER 11.5 rush attempts vs. Giants (-105, BetMGM) -- In light of Dan Campbell's recent admission he would like to get a certain running back more carries, it's -- you guessed it -- absolutely MANDATORY this Monty zealot places an OVER on his boy. With or without Jaxson Dart, the Giants should get steamrolled by a Lions team hungry to reacquire their high-scoring splendor. This season, New York is bottom basement (No. 32) in rush EPA D, yielding a massive 5.74 yards per carry and 20.4 rush attempts per game to RBs. Because they've often had to dig out of deficits, seven rushers have gripped the pigskin at least a dozen times on the ground against them. Only four times this season has Montgomery been called upon 12 or more times this fall, but when the head coach, who is now calling the offensive shots, wants more ground touches ... umm ... a player is likely to receive more ground touches -- especially what could be a lopsided affair (Detroit -10.5 is the current line). Hundreds of miles away unfortunate ears can hear this moron scream "MANDATORY MONTGOMERY!" Consider it a sign.
BetAlytics Projection: NA
5. Caleb Williams OVER 216.5 passing yards vs. Steelers (-115, BetMGM) -- On pace to break one of the most absurd low-threshold franchise records in NFL history, Williams is likely to become the franchise's first ever 4,000-yard passer. Yes, in the organization's 105 year-old history that's never happened before. However, Erik Kramer did come close in '96. Ben Johnson has gradually unlocked the former No. 1 overall pick's potential. Williams does rank outside the top 20 in six different completion percentage categories, but at No. 5 in total air yards, he's aggressively attacked defenses downfield. Throwing for at least 220 pas yards in five of his last eight games, the positive trend should continue. On a per game basis, no defense has given up more pass yards than Pittsburgh (281.5). With Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Luther Burden and an emerging Colston Loveland to spin spirals to, Williams should push Aaron Rodgers one step closer to retirement. Tortured Bears fans are hoping, that is.
BetAlytics Projection: 225.43
Season record: 21-27, -4.33 units