Primetime NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow -- that’s up to you.
The Pick: SGP - Ashton Jeanty 3+ receptions, Cowboys ML (+128, ESPN Bet)
Shiny New Toy Syndrome is an affliction that impacts millions of fantasy managers annually.
It’s an infectious disease where those impacted are lured by a rookie’s potential, breaking the bank to acquire his services in the process. Those struck with it can endure throbbing headaches, increased anxiety, incalculable frustration, plaguing impotence and Ls -- so many Ls.
This sickly fellow speaks from experience.
The hype on Jeanty was warranted. Whether via advanced data or the eye test, he demoralized college defenses at Boise State, displaying a remarkable blend of evasiveness, power and versatility. Selected at No. 6 overall by the Raiders in last April’s NFL Draft, he was destined to be a modern day Marshawn Lynch in Pete Caroll’s run-centered system.
Then the games began.
The flashy first-year back hasn’t been a complete failure, but with only one 100-yard ground game to his name, he’s underachieved. Currently, RB15 in half-point per game average, he hasn’t delivered on his RB1 promise.
Point the finger at Geno Smith.
Within Chip Kelly’s offense, the veteran passer has performed with the aptitude of Nate Peterman. Constant misfires have led to stalled drives, stacked fronts and a steady turnovers stream. At 35, the well-traveled QB should be relegated to sideline signaling. Suffice to say, Las Vegas will undoubtedly prioritize the position via free agency or in the 2026 Draft. Smith stinks.
Jeanty has been an active receiver. He’s averaged 19.0 routes per game, catching a respectable 76.7% of dump-offs thrown his way. With 22 total targets in his last five games, he’s snagged at least three receptions three times over the span.
Given Vegas’ below average play defending the pass, expect Jeanty the pass catcher to be a busy man on Monday.
As witnessed on downfield chucks or passes in the flat, Dallas defenders moonlight as door greeters at the nearby Wal-Mart. This season, Little D has allowed the ninth-most RB receptions, yielding 4.9 per game. In nine games, eight backs have reeled in what’s required.
In a matchup that has no business living on an island, the sure-handed Jeanty at least provides the PPR masses a jolt. Throwing in the Cowboys ML -- BetAlytics give them a 63.6% chance of winning -- and the juice jacks.
Leave us in the black, Ashton.
NO CONTEXT PARLAY PLAY: SGP - CeeDee Lamb 60+ rec yards, Brock Bowers 50+ rec yards, Javonte Williams 76.5u rush yards (+191, ESPN Bet)