Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points; RB: 12 fantasy points [10 for shockers], WR: 11 fantasy points: TE: 10 fantasy points; .5 PPR).
Hollywood Brown, Chiefs
| Start pct. | 8% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | vs. Raiders |
| BetMGM line | KC -11.5 |
| BetMGM total | 45.5 |
| BetAlytics proj. | NA pts |
The glitz. The glam. The fame. The fortune.
KC's Hollywood doesn’t qualify as an A-lister like Tom Cruise or Eli Manning wannabe Glenn Powell, but his on-field method acting is occasionally Oscar worthy in a supportive role.
The fantasy community is understandably giddy about the return of coveted field stretcher Rashee Rice. The prized receiver’s reactivation is not only a boon for the entire Chiefs offense, but Brown specifically.
Through six games, the multidimensional wideout has ranked appreciably in several advanced categories. On 26.7% of the team’s target share, he’s tucked inside the position’s top 30 in yards after catch (WR24), air yards (WR26) and expected fantasy points per game (WR22).
The versatile weapon has split time almost down the middle working outside and in the slot (42.5 slot%). Likely to me more of a traditional X with Rice back in the mix, he should benefit massively from Week 7’s mano-y-mano matchup against CB Kyu Blue Kelly. Vegas’ gracious DB has allowed the most yards of any defensive back in the NFL (396), His boundless generosity in catch percentage (72.7), yards per catch (16.7) and allowed passer rating (122.8) also speaks to his philanthropy.
As a collective, Vegas ranks No. 28 in dropback EPA defense, conceding the fifth-most fantasy points to WRs. No matter if lined up against Blue Kelly or another DB, Brown should have an edge coming off a two-TD game.
Patrick Mahomes will spread the love around, but Hollywood is sure to be featured at least 4-6 times. Keep in mind, given the Raiders’ stoutness versus the run, Brown’s volume could rock. KC's inability to run the ball effectively only enhances that belief.
Walk the red carpet.
Fearless Forecast, 4 receptions, 54 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 13.4 fantasy points
Zach Ertz, Commanders
| Start pct. | 40% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | at Cowboys |
| BetMGM line | Was -2.5 |
| BetMGM total | 55.5 |
| BetAlytics proj. | NA pts |
Taking liberty with an R.E.M. classic, “Everybody Ertz … sometimes.”
For those that have been holding on, this is the week to deploy the plus-sized pass catcher.
“Powerhouse” Sam Houston State — the Bearkats are nearly rock bottom in EPA per play offense among FBS teams — would probably hang a 30 spot on Little D. Entering the week, Matt Eberflus’ deplorable defense is dead last in dropback EPA D, surrendering 6.3 receptions and 56.7 receiving yards per game to tight ends alone. Woof.
The Stanky Stars will get gashed. Unless that apocalyptic asteroid finally strikes Earth, it’s inevitable. Yes, Jacory Croskey-Merritt will make his money on the ground and Deebo Samuel is sure to be a Jayden Daniels’ favorite, but considering Dallas’ zone reliance (84.0%, No.1 in the NFL), Ertz is destined to rack the receptions.
On paper, the veteran is Jake Ferguson lite. He’s enticed only 4.2 targets per game, but the between-the-hashmarks worker slots top 10 among TEs in aDOT (7.9), QB rating when targeted (118.9) and fantasy points per target (2.04).
Practically must-start material, Ertz is about to bring the pain. Michael Stipe agrees.
Fearless Forecast: 6 receptions, 59 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.9 fantasy points
Going Deep: Tez Johnson, Buccaneers, WR (at Det, 3% started) -- Some pass-catching Johnson is going to post arousing numbers in Detroit on Sunday night. Give this Blue Chew consumer the speedy Tez. Lighter than a bag of bowling balls soaking wet at 5-foot-10 and 154 pounds, the svelte speedster from Oregon has the wheels to churn out a quality WR3 line. Kameron Johnson is also an interesting play, but next to slot man Sterling Shepard, the former Duck has the most experience. He's seen action on at least 30% of Tampa team snaps in three straight games, totaling an impressive 18.7 yards per catch and 101.5 passer rating when targeted. Coming off his first touchdown scored of the season, he could consume a chunk gain or three. Combative safety Brian Branch is out due to a one-game suspension, weakening an already suspect Lions secondary. Since Week 3, Detroit ranks a modest No. 14 in dropback EPA defense. More alluring, on the season, Dan Campbell's crew has given up the third-most fantasy points to WRs. Expected to draw CB Rock Ya-Sin primarily in coverage -- he's allowed a 110.4 passer rating to his assignments this year -- Johnson rises to the occasion. (FF: 3-51-1, 12.6 fpts)