Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points; RB: 12 fantasy points [10 for shockers], WR: 11 fantasy points: TE: 10 fantasy points; .5 PPR).
Justin Herbert, Chargers
| Start pct. | 56% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | at Giants |
| BetMGM line | LAC -6 |
| BetMGM total | 44.5 |
| BetAlytics proj. | 22.5 fpts |
One of the most unforeseen developments three weeks into the NFL season is Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman trading in his reliable all-black F-150 pickup for a lightning yellow Corvette.
Sorry, Prince, it isn’t the little red variety, but, baby, it’s much too fast -- in the best possible sense for the fantasy masses.
On pace to establish career highs in a multitude of categories and dating high-profiled songstress Madison Bear, it’s shaping up to be quite the year for the former Duck. Hardly foie gras in the box score, he enters Week 4 No. 15 in adjusted completion percentage, No. 2 in total air yards and No. 9 in red zone completion rate. Tossing in his increased willingness to run (69 total rush yards), he’s QB5 in traditional scoring leagues.
Roman’s more liberal lean combined with the arsenal around him -- Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen and Quintin Johnston are a mighty fine trio -- arrow to continued QB1 returns.
Drafted largely as a backup in 12-team formats, it’s high time to consider inserting Herbert regularly into your starting lineups -- especially this week.
The same as fellow AFC West reps Kansas City did last week, the Chargers are set to make the cross continental trek to New York. Facing a Giants defense No. 25 in dropback EPA defense, L.A. welcomes the time-zone jump.
Sure, the restless long-distance trip warrants some skittishness, but the matchup should have the ascending QB right on time for his backers. Through three weeks, the miniaturized Giants have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing signal callers, yielding 6.87 yards per attempt, 301.7 combined yards per game and four total touchdowns to the position. CB Cor’Dale Flott ranks handsomely in pass coverage grade, but no other member of Shane Bowen’s defense is currently in the top 50 on Pro Football Focus.
Examining Herbert’s start percentage, many managers are playing pingpong in their brains debating his services weekly. Given the delightful matchup, start the man and smash home a forehand winner.
In LAC's suddenly high-powered offense, Herbert revs his engine on the road.
Fearless Forecast: 256 pass yards, 2 passing TDs, 0 interceptions, 11 rush yards, 21.9 fantasy points
BONUS QB FLAME
Michael Penix, Falcons
| Start pct. | 10% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | vs. Commanders |
| BetMGM line | Was -3 |
| BetMGM total | 45.5 |
| BetAlytics proj. | 17.6 fpts |
Unnatural. Wonky. Downright unconventional.
Yes, throw releases generally look irregular off a southpaw's hand, but if Penix were a MLB prospect, his motion would be deconstructed and rebuilt practically from scratch. That's the blunt truth.
Different from the diamond, the NFL doesn't have a true professional minor league system. Yes, in this day and age of NIL, the college game operates as a proving ground, but once eligibility expires, talented young players with adult goals walk the NFL Draft stage, cut their teeth in training camp and, oftentimes, are thrown unprepared into the fire.
Penix spent the majority of last season learning under the wing of Kirk Cousins. When inserted into the lineup in Week 15, he played poised. Over three games, he completed only 58% of his passes, but averaged 245.7 yards and totaled four touchdowns. Sure, he took his lumps as his three interceptions prove, but he seemed ready to assume the role as Atlanta's main man.
Through three weeks, however, Penix has looked terribly unseasoned. Against the Bucs, Vikings and Panthers, his rawness was buy-in-large exposed. His airborne stretch for a rush TD Week 1 versus Tampa boosted the bottom line, but currently outside the top-20 in five different completion percentage categories, he's underwhelmed. Entering Week 4, he's only QB26 in total fantasy output.
Funky chucks aside, this is the week Penix should peak. Given his rawness, other valleys will inevitably occur, but Week 5 won't be one.
A pushover across the board last fall, Washington's defense hasn't improved. Three games in, the Commanders rank No. 20 in dropback EPA D, surrendering 7.72 pass yards per attempt, 249.7 pass yards per game, five total touchdowns and the 11th-most fantasy points to QBs.
For this sucker to hit, we can only hope he watches Tom Emanski instructional videos on repeat. Fred McGriff concurs. And they were back-to-back-to-back AAU champs circa 1881.
Fearless Forecast: 252 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 1 interceptions, 7 rushing yards, 20.3 fantasy points
Season Record: 4-1