The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. SGP: Chiefs ML, Patrick Mahomes 25+ rush yards at Giants (+110, BetMGM) -- Who does Mahomes think he is? Lamar Jackson? The Madden version of Michael Vick? Running as though his hair is on fire, the decorated quarterback has become KC's most effective rusher. Isiah Pacheco continues to disappoint while Kareem Hunt steadily "challenges" defenses with two-yard slams. In matchups against the Chargers and Eagles, the booty scootin' QB chewed up real estate on the ground, totaling 66 and 57 rush yards respectively. Nimble motoring behind a top-10 offensive line, Mahomes' should again showcase his scrambling ability. Squaring off against a Giants defense in primetime is primo. Yes, the G=Men are No. 27 in pocket pressure rate (13.7%) on the young year, but the two-time MVP's 30.7% carry rate is impossible to ignore. Another half-dozen advantageous flush-and-runs are in order. NYG has given up the second-most rush yards to QBs after two weeks. Throw in KC to end their losing streak and plus money is craftily achieved.
BetAlytics Projection: 27.9 rush yards
2. CeeDee Lamb anytime TD at Bears (+100, ESPN Bet) -- Hey Andy Behrens, pass that bottle of Malort. The City of Big Shoulders is crumbling under the weight of the Bears' constant futility. The coaching switch from Matt Ebflus to Ben Johnson was supposed to lift the crushing poundage, but two games in, it's seemingly intensified. Down top cover corner Jaylon Johnson and near the bottom in dropback EPA D (No. 30), the Mice of the Midway are hardly squeaking. Lamb is about to make the misery much, much worse. Projected to draw Tyrique Stevenson often in coverage, Dallas' shining receiving star detonates. Through two games, the DB has surrendered the ninth-most yards, one touchdown and a PERFECT passer rating (158.3) to his assignments. CeeDee only has one red-zone target thus far, but top-seven in air yards and near the top in several other advanced metrics, he crosses the chalk whether on a short-field Dak Prescott strike or a deep bomb.
BetAlytics Projection: 51% chance to score
3. Bijan Robinson 90+ rush yards at Panthers (+134, DraftKings) -- Now that the first name controversy has been put to bed -- he's Bijan, as in dijon, America -- the Falcons finisher can concentrate on what he does best, dismantling defenses. As witnessed in Week 2 in Minnesota, the popular No. 1 overall fantasy picks possesses the moves of a 1980s breakdancer. Already this season, he's accumulated a league leading 15 missed tackles. His standings in YAC per attempt (RB14, 3.56) and yards created per touch (RB5, 5.67) also drive libidos. He's only generated 63,0% of the opportunity share, which lends some pause. Perpetual thorn Tyler Allgeier will continue to occasionally supplant him. Still, in a mouthwatering matchup, Bijan goes ballistic. Carolina -- a defense that finished rock bottom in EPA rush D last season -- has only shown slightly improvement in the trenches. At No. 21 in rush EPA D this year, they've given up the seventh-most rush yards and 5.67 yards per carry to RBs. Spread a little Bijan on your sandwich. Another banner week is in store.
BetAlytics Projection: 85.8 rush yards
4. TreVeyon Henderson OVER 8.5 receiving yards vs. Steelers (-120, BetMGM) -- Overconfident fantasy gamblers who shelled out considerable draft capital for the Ohio State product are already shedding tears in their beer. Outplayed by veteran Rhamondre Stevenson, Henderson has done little to nothing for virtual gamers. If there is a silver lining in his out-of-the-gate stumble, it's the greenhorn's contributions in the pass game. Against the Raiders and Dolphins, he slipped out of the backfield on 25 pass routes, catching a combined eight passes for 54 yards. He's also posted one of the highest yards per route run (6.8) among qualifying RBs. Yes his 1.63 YAC per attempt is nightmarish. Truthfully, many scouts questioned whether his 5-foot-10 and 202-pound frame could be successful between the tackles. The jury remains out on how effective he'll be as a traditional runner, but explosive and reliable as a pass catcher, Henderson should continue to thrive in that role. The Steelers allowed Breece Hall (38) and Kenneeth Walker (13) to cross the low threshold needed. On roughly 2-3 grabs, the disappointing rookie at least delivers for bettors. I play this number up to 20.5.
BetAlytics Projection: 10.3 receiving yards
5. Travis Hunter UNDER 18.5 yards longest catch vs. Texans (-115, BetMGM) -- As basketball legend Billy Raftery would probably describe him, Hunter is a classic "nickel dimer." He's seen a noteworthy 7.0 targets per game to begin his NFL career, but tosses from Trevor Lawrence have been almost exclusively in the short field. The two-way rookie is No. 79 in average depth of target (6.4), No. 66 in total air yards (66) and No. 77 in yards per target (3.9). Simply put, his resulting 6.1 yards per catch is positively wretched. His longest catch through two games was for only 10 yards. His projected primary assignment, CB Jalen Pitre, has surrendered an 85.7% catch rate on the young year, but downfield dustings haven't occurred (11.7 yards per catch allowed). When considering Houston as a collective is middle of the pack in dropback EPA defense (No. 17) and air yards allowed (No. 13), the prop above seems profoundly high. Unless Hunter leaves a little lingerie on the deck after the catch, the UNDER should come home.
BetAlytics Projection: NA
Season record: 5-5, -0.20 units