Primetime NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow -- that’s up to you.
The Pick: Jordan Mason anytime TD vs. Falcons (+110, BetMGM)
Sometimes you have to run it all the way back. Then again, is that the definition of insanity?
Admittedly, we may, as Beck mouthed in 90s alternative rock classic "Loser," be "getting crazy with the Cheez Whiz," but, as previously discussed in this week's RB Fantasy Flames, sensible and sound logic on Mason could ultimately prevail.
As displayed in Minnesota's come-from-behind triumph last week against the Bears along Lake Michigan, Mason, as fantasy players fully expected, operated as Kevin O'Connell's thunder. The chain mover bullied his way between the tackles after halftime, finishing with 68 rush yards on 15 carries. Most eye-catching, he accumulated 3.73 yards after contact per attempt (RB8 in Week 1) and forced three total missed tackles.
Evidenced by his 53.6% snap and 59.3% opportunity shares, Mason will remain fixed in a full-blown timeshare with lightning complement Aaron Jones. Essentially, game script will determine the overall distribution week-in and week-out. In competitive or lead-commanding engagements, Mason will be the flavor of choice. However, in scoreboard-chasing contests, scoops of Jones will be served.
With the Purple People Eaters entering the matchup as 3.5-point favorites at BetMGM, the anticipated flow should benefit Mason.
To be fair, the on-paper matchup isn't the friendliest. After one week, the Falcons rank No. 9 in rush EPA D, limiting Buccaneers backs to a lackluster 2.2 yards per carry.
Still, O'Connell's genius scheme combined with Minnesota's top 10 offensive line and box-lightening presence of Justin Jefferson suggest the former Niner is a quality tail in fantasy AND betting. BetAlytics gives him a sufficient 44.0% chance to score.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on ... my money.
Season props record: 1-2, -1.15 units
NO CONTEXT PARLAY PLAY -- SGP - Jordan Mason 12+ rush attempts, Bijan Robinson 2+ receptions, Aaron Jones 2+ receptions (+103, ESPN Bet) (We need a winner, folks.)
Season parlay record: 0-3, -3.00 units