The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. Michael Penix OVER 232.5 pass yards vs. Buccaneers (-115, BetMGM) - As fellow sophomoric minds would interperet, the seemingly easily reachable number on the Falcons starter is rather arousing. Sorry, but no Blue Chew is required. Inside Mercedes Benz Stadium expect fireworks to fly. Last year in their pair of tangoes, Atlanta and Tampa combined for 113 points and 1,709 total yards. Another wet dream scenario could unfold to kick off the 2025 season. The Falcons should improve defensively, but Pro Football Focus ranked Tampa's secondary bottom 10 entering the season. And Raheem Morris' WR shadows could be middling at best. Penix only topped 232.5 pass yards once in three starts last season. However, with Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts again primary targets, the established chemistry should lead to a profitable debut. Keep in mind, Tampa was a pedestrian No. 19 in dropback EPA D in '24.
BetAlytics Projection: 251.1 pass yards
2. Jonathan Taylor OVER 17.5 rush attempts vs. Dolphins (-125, BetMGM) - Death. Taxes. Politician lies. And Taylor getting run into the ground annually. These, my betting friends, are life's great consistencies. Indy's Clydesdale will saddle up early and often against a Miami defense that should be in the running for being the league's flimsiest. Interior hog Zach Sieler is a formidable RB stopper, but the unit could be severely taxed due to the 'Fins' outwardly forgiving secondary. In other words, expect deficits to mount. If the case Sunday inside Lucas Oil Stadium, Taylor is sure to salt the clock after halftime. A season ago, he logged at least 20 rush attempts in 10 of 14 games. In what will likely be a positive game script, bank on him hammering the Miami front working behind Indy's top-half run-blocking line. Feed him the entire bale of hay, Steichen.
BetAlytics Projection: 19.7 rush attempts
3. SGP: Cam Ward INT, Broncos -2.5 (+105, BetMGM) - Welcome to the NFL, kid. Ward's first regular season start is a daunting one. The 70,000 full-throated Broncos fans will be in attendance alone are intimidating, but most nerve racking is going to battle against arguably the stingiest secondary in the league. Patrick Surtain and Co. are bound to create chaos. Last season, no unit ranked higher in dropback EPA D than Denver. In total, the Mile High Moneymakers picked off opposing passers 15 times, the ninth-most in the NFL. The U product is an absolute unfazed gamer. His inexperience, however, makes him turnover vulnerable given the surrounding environment and opponent. Correlating the INT with a Broncos alt-line cover and desirable plus money is achieved.
BetAlytics Projection: 0.63 interceptions, Broncos -7.1
4. Chase Brown 70+ rush yards at Browns (+105, DraftKings) - At Casa de Evans, getting down with Brown is a weekly ritual. The amount of invested fantasy shares this I-L-L minded jackass has in the Cincy rusher is astronomical. Suffice it to say, if the dastardly injury imp messes with the precious cornerstone, rising from bed daily will become quite challenging. Late last season against the Browns, the clear-cut Bengals RB1 sprinted to 91 ground yards on 18 carries. With the rushing attack reportedly rebuilt around him, he should again flirt with 100 yards. Thanks to premier edge rusher Myles Garrett, Cleveland checked in at a respectable No. 16 in rush EPA D last fall. Still, due to Cincinnati's deadly aerial assaults, Brown should benefit from steady light fronts. Keep in mind, he encountered eight or more men in the box only 18.3% of the time in 2024. On a presumed 80-85% of the opportunity share, the Canadian product should taste maple syrup-sweet in the opener.
BetAlytics Projection: 69.1 rushing yards
5. Matthew Golden 60+ receiving yards vs. Lions (+147, DraftKings) - Putting money where my mouth is, this Golden enthusiast isn't remotely backing away from bullish feelings about the rookie receiver. Whether over the airwaves or in print, this optimistic stockholder has showered the Packers wideout in adoration. His quarterback is convinced Golden is already "a stud," a player who multiple observers claimed was the standout player throughout training camp. Securing a couple splashy catches in the Preseason, the lightning fast WR (4.29 40-yard) has a rock solid chance to begin his career with a BANG! His projected primary assignment, CB Terrion Arnold, surrendered eight TDs to assignments last fall, ranking No. 114 in pass coverage grade according to Pro Football Focus. With his elite speed and budding chemistry with Love, expect Green Bay's precious metal to glisten.
BetAlytics Projection: 51.3 receiving yards
Season record: 0-0, 0.00 units