Whether experienced purchasing a high-mileage used car, bungalow fixer-upper in the ‘burbs or stack of JaMarcus Russell rookie cards, regret inevitably kicks in.
Any fantasy manager can relate.
Last fantasy season, no selection conjured more second guessing than those who chose to roll the dice on Christian McCaffrey. During the peak fantasy draft season, details about his bilateral Achilles tendonitis were not yet known. Kyle Shanahan -- like his pops did with Denver RBs before him -- kept all the ADP-swaying information close to the vest.
Once the cat was out of the bag, investors who emptied the bank to acquire the CMC Football Factory immediately scoured the waiver wire for someone, anyone who could at least partially fill the gaping roster hole.
What an unforgivable debacle.
In a similar category as McCaffrey this time last year, below are sought after fantasy options who could have buyers living in squalor come year’s end. They could also make this wannabe soothsayer look even stupider.
Here is my all-overvalued team.
QB - Jared Goff, Lions (ADP: 107.11, QB11) - With cement blocks for feet, Goff is your classic pocket passer in the Kirk Cousins vein. Your cheese chiseled uncle could possibly beat him in a 40-yard footrace. Vintage slowpoke Tom Brady agrees.
Point blank, Goff is routinely being drafted about 5-7 positional spots too high. The go-go-gadget arms extended is somewhat puzzling. Yes, he tossed 37 passes a year ago and returns Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam Laporta and bottle rocket Jahmyr Gibbs, but his almost nonexistent rushing ability stresses the need for him to have a vertical repeat in order to return perceived market value.
As his top-six standings in adjusted completion percentage, deep-ball completion percentage and red-zone completion percentage clearly show, Goff often slices and dices secondaries. He's tallied at least 4,500 passing yards and 30 TDs in consecutive seasons.
Still, due to his lack of duality and given his fourth-hardest projected fantasy QB strength of schedule, the established veteran has curtailed upside. For accepting audiences content with recency, he's a fine back-end QB1. However, for those aiming to score this year's Baker Mayfield, there are more attractive upside guys available at a much cheaper price (e.g. JJ McCarthy, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Trevor Lawrence).
No longer Gofful, the Lions starter is a rather unenthusiastic buy.
RB - De’Von Achane, Dolphins (ADP: 16.67, RB7) - Already dealing with a tender calf, a setback Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said will sideline the RB for at least a week, Achane is already an out-of-water Fish struggling for air.
There are positives in Miami for the PPR masses. As he displayed last year, the third-year speedster has reliable hands. Luring 15.6% of the target share, he hauled in 768 receptions. Many grabs were of the nickel-and-dime variety (7.6 yards per reception), but his high-catch volume raises the floor.
But undeniable negatives drag down the overall profile.
The Playful Porpoises will be punked often. A pliable offensive line combined with a red carpet defense isn’t a recipe for fantasy success. As a result, odds are significant the RB’s rush yards and overall TD output will suffer.
Sliding down my personal ranks in recent days, the plan is to avoid Achane.
WR - Ladd McConkey, Chargers (ADP: 21.56, WR11) - Investing in what this scribe perceives is top dollar for the McConkey Donkey is a jackass move.
Constantly dealing with in-game dings, the injury-prone wideout took art-of-falling lessons this offseason to in an attempt to ensure four-quarter health. It may seem silly, but that physical education could help him avoid plaguing absences. He only missed one full game in his first season, but there were several instances where he logged noticeable time in the medical tent.
Giving credit where its due, the former Georgie Bulldog bared his teeth in the box score last year. His final 82-1149-7 line cracked the position's top 20 in PPR formats. He also ranked appreciably in yards per route run (2.56, WR7), QB rating when targeted (123.0, WR8), contested catch rate (58.5%, WR5) and yards after catch (396, WR17).
He has an efficient quarterback, but as the WR1 in a conservative Greg Roman system, last season's total achievement is likely his peak.
Saddle up someone else.
TE - Travis Kelce, Chiefs (ADP: 83.56, TE6) - Shake it off, Evans. Yes, the Swifties are outwardly disdainful about this selection, but unlike his show stealing lady, the future Hall of Famer rarely takes center stage -- at least at this point in his career.
Chatting with Chiefs insiders on BetMGM Tonight over the past couple weeks, the primary takeaway when asking questions about Kelce is his expected reduction in overall playing time. Yes, he'll continue to be a fixture in the red zone, but Noah Grey could land additional work between the 20s. Kelce duplicating his 85.5% snap share from 2024 is a midfield desperation heave with time expiring.
As numerous underlying datapoints suggest -- most glaring he finished TE32 in fantasy points per target in '24 -- he's due to regress. In the end, under 700 yards with 5-6 TDs is a fair expectation. He'll be fortunate to crack the position's top 10 -- even if Rashee Rice misses a large chunk of the regular season.