The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise -- fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Miami Dolphins
Fantasy value - Tyreek Hill, WR (ADP: 30.89, WR15) - The Tyreek freaks in attendance have become increasingly sparse. Yes, he's aging, but the negative reviews aren’t completely warranted. He's hardly Ice Cube’s ‘War of the Worlds’ bad.
Again, he’s on the wrong side of 30, but the speedster has plenty of petrol left in the tank. Last year’s forgettable campaign -- a season in which various setbacks landed him at WR29 in PPR per game average -- may have dimmed the star’s once bright light. Still, there are underlying signs a return to the position’s top-10 is possible.
His 2024 advanced profile is encouraging. He ranked top 15 among wideouts in route win percentage (50.4%), total air yards (1369) and total red-zone targets (18). As his No. 14 finish in unrealized air yards suggests, many fantasy scoring opportunities were missed. The finger is squarely pointed at you, Tua Tagovailoa.
If the vertical pair can at least occasionally resemble the unstoppable duo of yesteryear, Hill will bounce back with a vengeance. Miami’s expected horrid defense should extend a helping hand.
Supposedly fully committed to the game again, Hill’s personal motivation combined with his team’s beneficial environment point to a final line in range of 95-1200-7. Reenter that territory and he’ll surely profit at his Round 3 ADP.
Party on South Beach.
Prop pick - De’Von Achane OVER 450.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) - Channel your inner sledgehammer. DADDY WANT! DADDY NEED! DADDY GOTTA HAVE IT! Shout the phrase that pays into the upper reaches of the atmosphere.
Of all the player props featured in the 3-Point Stance series, this one is at or near the top of the must-have list.
The Dolphins could look as silly as MIke McDaniels’ capri pants look in sub-zero Buffalo temperatures. Most lauded prognosticators believe Miami’s defense will finish in the league’s bottom five. It’s No. 23 fantasy RB strength of schedule is also discouraging.
That may not be the greatest formula for ground success, but presumably thrust into many scoreboard-chasing situations, Achane, one of the premier receiving backs in the league, is likely to dink and dunk his way to a sweat-free cash.
Last season as a pass catcher, the fleet-footed back ranked inside the RB top seven in route participation (47.6% of snaps) and target share (15.6%). His 7.6 yards per reception somewhat sours the mood, but he caught a whopping 89.7% of his intended looks. Overall, he finished with 78 receptions for 592 yards in 17 games. Sure-handed.
Given the expected negative game scripts and his after-catch shiftiness, Achane could blow the above number away by some 150-200 yards.
Wield it our little friend.
Team lean - Dolphins UNDER 7.5 regular season wins (-110, BetMGM) - Don’t bank on the Dolphins spouting repeated wins from their blowholes.
The Fightin’ Dan Marinos are littered with uncertainty. Will the defense actually tackle people? Can the offense fire on all cylinders? Will Tua avoid another concerning concussion? Can the offensive line protect him even adequately?
So many questions.
ESPN’s Mike Clay projects 8.2 triumphs for Miami this season, giving it a 51% or greater win probability in eight games.
The offense should be a top-half unit, but an overly friendly defense will lead to its consistent demise week in and week out.
Fade Flipper.