The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise -- fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: New England Patriots
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Fantasy value - Stefon Diggs, WR (ADP: 78.04, WR39) - Book that boat and load up on mysterious pink substances. Diggs could surprisingly party hard in his first season with the Patriots.
Coming off a nasty knee injury suffered eight months ago, the established veteran has looked springy and spry in training camp. Though he remained in street clothes in New England's first Preseason game, it appears he's a virtual lock to suit up Week 1 in what should be a delightful home matchup versus the Raiders. Reportedly, he's operating with zero limitations.
One can only hope his ex-lady friend, Cardi B, hasn't levied some ill-fated curse.
Prior to last season's knee derailment, Diggs showed he still can deliver a WR2 return. In eight games with the Texans, he tallied an appreciable 15.2 PPR points per game, posting a solid 104.7 passer rating when targeted while impressively finishing WR8 in route win percentage. His still visible separation skills allowed him to maximize opportunities in the short-to-intermediate field.
Yes, post-injury questions about his route sharpness are justified. However, without much competition for looks and given Maye's likely advancements in his processing and execution, there's plenty of upside present.
Touchdowns may be few and far between, but if everything clicks, he could be a somewhat unexpected 1,000-yard contributor.
Essentially, he's a firm WR3 available at a WR4 price in 12-team leagues. Can you Diggs it?
Prop pick - Drake Maye OVER 19.5 pass TDs (-125, BetMGM) - End-zone strikes from the arm of the Pats second-year starter will be as consistent as lyrics about Chevrolets and PBRs in random country songs. Yeehaw!
As mentioned above, Maye has reportedly undergone improvements in his processing and overall delivery. Those forward steps are encouraging signs he could notch meaningful numbers in his first full season as the starter. Frankly, OVER on 19.5 pass TDs feels like slam dunk on a six-foot rim.
Last year in 13 contests, Maye occasionally flashed. He finished a respectable No. 16 in red-zone completion percentage. His active legs aroused the fantasy football masses, but his execution inside the 20 was noteworthy.
The Pats defense could be downright stingy, which diminishes the potential for shootouts. But, if he makes the necessary strides, 20 air strikes are very reachable. A healthy and effective Diggs combined with the potential of Kyle Williams and TreyVeon Henderson boost that outlook.
Even at significant minus money, love the Drake.
Team lean - Patriots UNDER 8.5 regular season wins (-120, BetMGM) - This is still a New England franchise in transition. Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, Lombardi trophies and DeflateGate are long in the past.
After consecutive 4-13 campaigns, the Pats should finally right the ship. However, smooth sailing isn't expected.
Entering the regular season, New England sports the sixth-easiest projected strength of schedule. Despite the expected rough road, ESPN's Mike Clay predicts 8.7 wins for it this upcoming season. In total, the respected forecaster gives Mike Vrabel's squad a 54% or greater win probability in 10 games. Aggressive.
Sharpie me in for exactly eight wins. Disagree? Fade the living daylights out of this wannabe soothsayer's belief. If the UNDER hits, the first shot of rum is on yours truly, Captain Hook.