The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise -- fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Cleveland Browns
Fantasy value - Dylan Sampson, RB (ADP: 157.13, RB50) - Unsigned rookie Quinshon Judkins' is wading in hot and murky waters. Due to an off-the-field domestic issue, he's very much on the outside looking in. It's completely unknown if/when he will pen his name on the dotted line and debut at training camp.
Hola, opportunity.
For Sampson, the door isn't ajar -- it's swung wide open. Judkins' serious legal problems aside, veteran Jerome Ford is dealing with a nettlesome undisclosed setback. His camp absence and undetermined timeline to return have awarded Sampson valuable first-team practice reps.
Slipping into the fourth round of this year's NFL Draft, the undervalued newbie sports eyebrow-raising skills. He could pound a few more protein shakes (5-foot-11, 201 pounds), but his one-cut effectiveness, sharp vision and explosiveness are terrific traits. As tracked by Pro Football Focus, the former Tennessee Volunteer finished inside the top-16 among all FBS rushers last year in yards after contact per attempt (3.60), total missed tackles forced (70) and dashes of 15+ yards (17). Educated in zone concepts, he fits Kevin Stefanski's scheme like a glove.
The biggest knock against Sampson is Cleveland's expected futility. He possesses above average hands, but the greenhorn will have to develop as a pass blocker. Advance in that area and he could emerge as a legitimate three-down workhorse at some point this season.
Much is to be determined in the weeks ahead of the Browns' opener versus intrastate rival Cincinnati. What's the final verdict on Judkins? Just what is Ford dealing with? Who in the heck will chuck wounded ducks downfield in C-Town this season? The longer questions No. 1 and No. 2 linger, the better the odds Sampson secures RB1 duties.
As summer's dog days drag, expect his price tag to rise. The RB2 potential in 0.5 PPR formats is palpable. Yes, even on a lousy basement-dwelling team.
Prop pick - Jerry Jeudy 1,000+ receiving yards (+125, DraftKings) - In terms of environment, the former Bronco has been dealt a seven-deuce offsuit. Though reeling in a massive pot may seem like long odds with Cleveland's craptastic cavalcade of QBs -- Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Shedeur Sanders and Dillion Gabriel inspire little confidence -- it's difficult to look past Jeudy's workload potential.
Last fall, the former first-round pick cannonball splashed in the waters of Lake Erie. Finally unlocking his premium WR2 potential, he blazed a fiery trail from Week 11 on. During the memorable stretch, he amassed 6.3 receptions per game, 90.1 receiving yards per game and scored three touchdowns. His stirring finish placed him well inside the position's top 24 over the span.
Most impressive, not a single wide receiver totaled more route wins than Jeudy a season ago. Whether working in the slot (33.8% of snaps) or outside, he routinely generated generous breathing room. Of course, occasionally shoddy QB play stunted his overall numbers. The Browns' WR1 finished his 2024 campaign with an outstanding 90-1229-4 line, but he was WR11 in unrealized air yards and WR61 in QB rating when targeted (93.2). His No. 14 placement in expected fantasy points per game perfectly sums up opportunities missed.
Tough to wrangle after the catch (WR20 in YAC in '24), the cheap fantasy WR3 (ADP: 60.58, WR30) is in a position to cash handsomely. Cleveland's frequent scoreboard chasing should elevate him well inside the top-10 in total targets. The Browns' eighth-easiest projected fantasy WR strength of schedule only further supports the OVER argument.
Practically sledgehammer worthy, the bet above is one of this degen's favorite season-long props.
Team lean - Browns UNDER 4.5 regular season wins (+145, BetMGM) - It's only appropriate during Cleveland's unveiling of its new helmet an employee filming the curtain pull outside of Huntington Bank Field took an unwanted bath. It's a sign from the football gods precisely how bungling the Browns season will be.
A frontrunner alongside the Saints and Giants to finish as THE folly of the NFL, the Factory of Sadness should churn out Ls. It's QB dilemma is dreadful. It's defense is rather bleak. And, most disastrously, it has the fourth-hardest projected strength of schedule of any franchise in the league.
ESPN's Mike Clay forecasts 4.6 wins for the Fightin' Bernie Kosars, giving them only a 40% or better win probability in two games -- TWO.
The local Great Lakes Brewery doesn't have enough of its signature Oktoberfest on tap. A familiar feeling of pain and misery will permeate throughout the CLE this fall. The Browns are likely a 3-4 win finisher at best.