SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.
The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Detroit Lions.
Fantasy value — David Montgomery, RB (ADP: 65.32, RB22)
Featuring the TD-consistent rusher in this space was absolutely MANDATORY.
#MandatoryMontgomery is one of the NFL’s most notorious goal-line gremlins. Poaching the occasional red-zone carry from Jahmyr Gibbs will again be a frequent occurrence. Last season in 14 games, the perpetual thorn totaled 53 carries inside the 20 (13 at the goal line), the 13th-most of any running back. Unsurprisingly, Montgomery crossed the chalk a dozen times on the ground.
Detroit’s backfield accomplice was largely efficient last year. Among qualifying RBs, he ranked No. 12 in yards created per touch (4.10) and No. 18 in yards after contact per attempt (3.20). Most eye opening was the fact that Montgomery set the pace among RBs in yards per route run (4.74) and overall catch rate (94.7%) with 36 receptions.
Many in the fantasy community believe Monty’s opportunity share (46.8% in 2024) is due to shrink, but outside of the assistant coaches under Dan Campbell, little in the Motor City has changed. The Lions will continue to run often (No. 8 in run rate in ‘24) behind their lane-creating offensive line. They landed at No. 2 in run-blocking efficiency, according to Pro Football Focus.
Slipping into the sixth round of typical 12-team exercises, Montgomery is a tremendous target at RB2. He scored at least 10 fantasy points in 12 of 14 contests last season.
Yes, he’s a pet player, but feed the premier TD vulture a freshly squashed squirrel. He'll again turn a profit.
Prop pick — Jameson Williams 1,000+ receiving yards (+175, DraftKings)
Grab the nearest chair, belly up to the bar and ask the server for a double shot of Jameson. Whether sinking thoughts into Detroit’s breakout receiver last year or the popular Irish whisky, a joyful buzz is sure to overtake.
Previously discussed at length, the line above is downright sexy at significant plus money. Frankly, the nearly 2-to-1 odds remain bat-bleeping crazy.
Last season was a substantial forward step for Williams. The 2022 No. 12 overall pick amassed a stupendous 112.9 passer rating when targeted and finished No. 19 in route win percentage (48.9%). According to PlayerProfiler, the former Alabama standout also landed inside the position’s top 15 in target separation (2.04), yards per target (11.0), yards per reception (17.3), explosive rating (117) and total YAC (447).
[ NFL Gamer's Guide: Fantasy forecasts and futures bets for 2025 season ]
Williams’ final 58-1001-7 season tally in 15 games slotted No. 23 in PPR fantasy points per game. A clear example of efficiency, he achieved all of that while attracting only 16.9% of the team’s target share.
New Lions offensive coordinator John Morton recently sung Williams’ praises, saying the speedster’s increased “attention to detail” will lead to a “breakout year.” Also, Campbell has gushed about Williams’ improved strength, noting the “sky’s the limit” for the spring standout.
Ordering another round, Williams enters the season with the No. 1 easiest projected strength of schedule for a fantasy WR.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Gibbs will demand looks from Jared Goff, but Williams is fueled, focused and destined to soar skyward.
Team lean — Lions UNDER 10.5 regular-season wins (-120, Caesars)
Apologies in advance, Barry Sanders. Much like the franchise legend, the Lions could very well juke this doubter out of his cleats. Outside of Campbell’s coaching staff, “continuity” best describes the organization. Replicating last season’s 15-2 record, however, feels like a strange trip.
ESPN’s Mike Clay projects 11.4 victories for Detroit this season, giving it a 54% or greater win probability in a whopping 16 games. Holy smokes.
Defying the NFL’s kneecap biter is probably an exercise in futility, but Jared Goff and company own THE hardest strength of schedule of any NFL team. Despite an unrelenting defense and top-10 offense, the rugged road implies Eminem may need to take out his frustrations on a diss track or three.