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The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Green Bay Packers.
Fantasy value — Matthew Golden, WR (ADP: 104.17, WR48)
The former Texas Longhorn resembles another speedy Hook ‘Em product, Kansas City’s Xavier Worthy. Fleet of foot (4.29 in the 40) and possibly more route-polished than Andy Reid’s X-man, Golden could blaze a more impactful trail in his inaugural campaign. Solid WR3 production in 12-team leagues is well within reach.
Last year in Austin, Golden excelled whether operating out of the slot or as a flanker. His short-area quickness, fine footwork, toe-drag swag and press-defying moves are why Green Bay invested a first-round pick for his services. He finished in the top 13 nationally in contested catch rate and in the top 10 in total deep yards. Overall, he registered at least a 100+ passer rating on six different routes, burning defensive backs regularly on out and go sprints.
Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft will occasionally lure Jordan Love’s affections. However, with Christian Watson’s ongoing recovery from a late-season ACL injury and the spread-the-love nature of the offense, Golden is likely to emerge as a weapon of choice in many weeks. His contributions could be erratic, but the potential inconsistency is built into his very affordable price.
Golden’s versatility and already budding chemistry with Love could lead to bubbling numbers this season. In the end, a 70-1000-6 splash is doable for the greenhorn in Year 1.
Prop pick — Josh Jacobs OVER 1050.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
A Rodney Dangerfield All-Star in fantasy circles, Green Bay’s disrespected basher is always steadily undervalued. A certifiable top-10 running back in the virtual game, Jacobs is a grinder in his prime running behind a top-half run-blocking line. The number above is Charmin soft.
Last year’s 66.5% opportunity share may not label him a workhorse, and MarShawn Lloyd could supplant him roughly 7-9 times per game. However, Jacobs ran the rock 301 times in 17 contests last season. He also finished top-10 in several opinion-swaying metrics, including total yards created (1,287), yards after contact per attempt (3.49) and total missed tackles forced (79). That’s some efficiency.
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Including his Raiders days, Jacobs surpassed the needed threshold in four of six seasons. Frankly, the sinister injury imp is really the only obstacle to prevent him from reaching 1100 ground yards. Sweetening the deal, Jacobs has the fourth-easiest projected fantasy RB strength of schedule.
In his second season in Northern Wisconsin, the Packers plow earns backers a chunk of cheddar.
Team lean — Packers UNDER 9.5 regular-season wins (+100, BetMGM)
Suppressing subjectivity as an ardent Bears supporter, Green Bay could be the one team in the NFC North that could underwhelm. Hey, not every squad is going to finish 9-7 or better.
ESPN’s Mike Clay forecasts 8.7 victories for the Fightin’ Samkon Gados, projecting a 50% or higher win probability in just seven games. Tough-to-predict matchups in Lambeau against the Commanders (Week 2), Bengals (Week 6), Eagles (Week 10), Vikings (Week 12) and Bears (Week 14) seem most influential on where the final number falls.
Matt LaFleur’s offense should rank somewhere in the top 15, but a likely middle-of-the-pack defense clouds matters. In the end, nine wins.