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Sometimes you want to make a quick pit stop, empty the bladder, grab a bag of salty snacks and limber up the limbs before hitting the open road again. For the fast-minded who enjoy simple $2 scratchers hoping to uncover the jackpot-winning image, here are quick thoughts and the lean on Kansas vs. Iowa State.
No. 9 Kansas (12-3, 3-1) at No. 2 Iowa State (14-1, 4-0)
Date: Wednesday, January 15
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
In a tradition this time each year, Iowa’s agrarian society trades in swine for swishes and bushels of baskets.
With a thick layer of snow coating the farmland ground, the annual hoops harvest in the Hawkeye State is well underway. Caitlin Clark may have moved on to greener WNBA pastures and Fran McCaffery’s Iowa City reps might have the look of a fringe NCAA Tournament team, but the supercellular storm in Ames has unleashed a pack of Cyclones measuring F-5 on the Fujita Scale.
And, no Drake, this ardent supporter of Arch Madness didn’t intentionally forget about you. Almost incontestably, you’re the class of the Missouri Valley Conference. I’m monitoring your progress.
Still, when it comes to the grand plan, T.J. Otzelberger’s boys are shaping up to be not only Big 12 title contenders but also a viable representative in the Final Four. A sea of red-clad fans could soon invade the Alamo. Watch out, Davy Crockett.
The pick — Iowa State -5.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Iowa State is knocking at the door of being No. 1. Whether via popularity polls, the NET, KenPom, BartTorvik, Haslametrics or EvanMiya, the Cyclones are a ferocious, nearly unblemished team that has spun a top-seeded profile at 14-1.
They’ve played the 28th-toughest schedule in the land, posting a 4-3 mark against Quadrant 1 teams. Equally outstanding, they’re top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency nationally. With an experienced roster featuring four starting holdovers from last season’s Sweet Sixteen squad, Iowa State possesses few weaknesses.
Kansas’ play this season is best summarized in a word — unpredictable. The Jayhawks’ top-10 overall advanced metrics standing grabs your attention, but peeling back the onion layers reveals flaws. So do the road losses at Creighton and Missouri and the home defeat against West Virginia. Night in and night out, gamblers are better off guessing whether green hits on the roulette wheel.
Since Dec. 1, Bill Self’s KU squad is a middling No. 23 in total efficiency, according to BarTorvik. The Jayhawks have defended staunchly over the stretch (No. 2 in eFG D), but putting ball through the basket has been problematic.
In that eight-game span, Kansas is No. 246 in effective field-goal offense, shooting a meager 49.9% on 2-pointers and 32.0% on 3-pointers. Twentieth-year senior Hunter Dickinson, South Dakota State transfer Zeke Mayo and point man Dajuan Harris Jr. have offered some consistency, but KJ Adams Jr., AJ Storr and others haven’t. As a result, Self has made lineup alterations to light a spark, replacing Storr with journeyman guard Shakeel Moore.
The Cyclones are the more balanced and better team. And they’re playing at Hilton Coliseum, a venue with a magical reputation. Keshon Gilbert, Curtis Jones and Joshua Jefferson should repeatedly display a sleight of hand.
Both schools are proven covering machines. Over its last 10 games, Iowa State is 8-2 against the spread, while Kansas is 7-3 ATS. However, unless the Jayhawks collectively find their shot, a double-digit end-game L feels inevitable.
Even Farmer John's chickens would agree.
Season record: 15-11, +3.99 units