Iowa State at No. 21 Iowa
Day: Saturday, September 7
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
All eyes in the state of Iowa will be on Iowa City when the Cyclones play the 21st-ranked Hawkeyes. This is a series recently dominated by Iowa, which has won the Cy-Hawk Trophy seven of the last eight years.
Both teams enter the game with relatively high expectations for 2024. Iowa State has the potential to contend for a Big 12 title and had a win total of 7.5 before the season. Iowa’s win total got bet up to 8 due to a soft Big Ten schedule and one of the best defenses in the country.
The pick — Iowa State +3 (-115, DraftKings)
Before getting into the matchup, I want to share a betting principle I’ve learned over the years. If you can get a field goal or better on the underdog in a game with a low total, it’s not a bad idea to bet on it. The total in this game is 35.5, which was a common range for Iowa football contests last year.
In a game in which scoring will be at a premium, taking the points becomes more valuable and the chances Iowa wins by one or two points increase. So that’s why I’m more inclined to take Iowa State on the point spread and not just the moneyline.
I do believe Iowa State is going to win this game. Matt Campbell is one of my favorite coaches in college football, and he has consistently elevated the talent of his offenses throughout the years.
Last year, Iowa State went through a sports betting scandal that left players suspended before the season began. Campbell led the team through adversity to a seven-win campaign and helped develop inexperienced QB Rocco Becht into a serviceable starter.
The thought process of bettors who bought Iowa before the season was that new offensive coordinator Tim Lester would improve the offense enough to exceed eight wins. That reasoning is fine, especially with a stout defense, but I have doubts about the Hawkeyes offense going up against an experienced Iowa State defense.
Last week, Iowa won 40-0 against FCS Illinois State, but the Hawkeyes only scored six points in the first half with three of those points aided by a fumble in Iowa territory. I would expect another slow start from QB Cade McNamara and the Hawkeyes offense.
If Becht and the Iowa State offense can take care of the ball and not set up Iowa’s offense with short fields, I like the Cyclones to bring the Cy-Hawk Trophy back to Ames. But to play it safe, take the points with Iowa State in case the Hawkeyes win by a narrow margin.
Season record: 4-1, +2.96 units