In the darkest recesses of drafts, a statistical monster sleeps. Every year, a near unanimously overlooked player wakes up and torches the competition. When it comes to return on investment, who could be this season’s Kyren Williams? Brad Evans lists his top-five shocker specials.
Position rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Cheat Sheet
1. Khalil Shakir, Bills, WR (ADP: 164.48, WR52)
Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman have gained ADP traction in the fantasy community, but put some damn respect on Shakir’s name. Dalton Kincaid is likely to be Josh Allen’s most consistent weapon, but the flashy veteran receiver has the established rapport, route-running skills and overall profile to contribute meaningful fantasy numbers.
Primarily operating inside last year (69.0% slot rate), the speedy Shakir finished WR19 in target separation and No. 1 in yards per target (13.6) among qualifying receivers. Allen’s 133.6 passer rating targeting him also topped the NFL rankings.
Touchdowns are likely to be infrequent, but the catch/yardage prognostications for Coleman could be achieved by Shakir. A final line around 60-850-4 isn’t out of reach.
No, that isn’t “league winning” as some fantasy bullhorns like to sell, but it’s profitable production in challenging formats given the ADP.
2. Dontayvion Wicks, Packers, WR (ADP: 178.89, RB60)
It helps when your quarterback is your biggest hype man. Jordan Love has repeatedly pumped up Wicks throughout the offseason, flat-out suggesting he’ll be the team’s breakout player. Yes, it’s a complicated and competitive WR room, but the sophomore wideout owns difference-making metrics.
Last season, Wicks stood out in critical advanced analytics categories. He was WR15 or higher in QB rating per target (115.7), route win rate (54.4%) and yards per target (10.0), and his attention-grabbing 2.06 fantasy points per target cracked the position’s top 20. He also finished in the upper echelon in win rate against man coverage (50.5%, WR4).
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With the Packers’ 10th-easiest strength of schedule for fantasy WRs, Wicks’ breakout potential in Year 2 is believable. After all, Love is the one twirling passes in his direction.
At a Busch Light cheap ADP, he’s a prime late-round target. Strike a match.
3. Audric Estime, Broncos, RB (ADP: 210.77, RB61)
As the mercury has climbed this summer in Denver, so have the number of superlatives spoken by Sean Payton about the rookie.
In an undefined RBBC with Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine, Estime won’t likely carve out a massive role. However, equipped with a bulky frame and bolstered by a borderline top-10 offensive line, he owns measurable upside.
As it currently stands, the former Gold Domer is likely to be deployed on early downs and in short-yardage situations. He also has solid odds of securing the majority of goal-line reps. Magnificent last year after initial contact with Notre Dame (4.27 YAC/attempt), he’s a bruising between-the-tackles back.
Given Denver’s 12th-easiest fantasy RB strength of schedule and its top-10 standing in run percentage last season (44.4), Estime — on 10-12 touches per game — could finish in the range of 850-900 total yards with 6-8 TDs.
4. Will Levis, Titans, QB (ADP: 180.30, QB24)
The strapping 6-foot-4 second-year passer has bulged the biceps repeatedly throughout training camp, picking apart Titans teammates whether on accurate downfield bombs or precise intermediate outs. His progression and growth this offseason is undoubtedly eye-catching.
Though he’ll potentially be without DeAndre Hopkins (knee) to begin the regular season, the additions of Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd and Tony Pollard and the presence of suitable holdovers Chig Okonkwo and Tyjae Spears suggest Levis will come out firing. Tennessee’s 11th-easiest strength of schedule and porous projected defense only ramp up the appeal.
Levis, who already possesses one of the best downfield arms, finished his rookie year No. 2 in deep-ball catchable percentage. If he spins tighter spirals between 0-20 yards, reaching 4,000-plus yards with 22-25 TDs isn’t crazy talk.
Invest with confidence, wait-on-a-QB adherers.
5. Braelon Allen, Jets, RB (ADP: 203.52, RB56)
Injuries are always the great unknown in fantasy football. The menacing imp lurks around every corner, sending managers scurrying to find suitable alternatives for ruined rosters. Unquestionably, Breece Hall is the man in New York, but if the feared creature sinks his sharp teeth into the RB, Allen’s enormous potential will be unlocked.
The rookie from Wisconsin has the size (6-foot-1, 235 pounds), open-field moves (49 missed tackles forced in 2023), break tackle ability (3.77 YAC/attempt) and hands (28 receptions) to repeatedly gash defenses. The Jets have the seventh-hardest projected strength of schedule, but if Allen is elevated into the captain’s chair at any point, he’s destined to post one double-digit fantasy scoring output after another.
The Jets offensive line will be one of the game’s best, and with a supportive defense, Robert Saleh’s ground game should hum no matter who carries the rock. Stash Allen in the beer-fuzzy rounds.
BONUS TIME — Andrei Iosivas, Bengals, WR (ADP: 238.98, WR93)
Some insane individuals — this fantasy player crazily included — play in nutty 20-team leagues. It’s an exercise in masochism, but deep reserves like Iosivas could make all the difference in punching a postseason ticket or not.
The groundswell on the likely starting slot man continues to gather. The Princeton product averaged only 8.6 routes per game in his rookie season, but seemingly everyone from the blonde bombshell Joe Burrow to the coaching staff to local beat writers have talked up Iosivas. Hey, when your QB says you “can do it all” and are primed for a “big year,” gamers have to listen, especially at Iosivas' dirt-cheap ADP.
During his days as the Bengals’ primary slot man, Tyler Boyd occasionally delivered useful WR3 numbers. Iosivas is capable of doing the same.