With the coachspeak and player-driven hype already intensifying before the 2024 NFL season, Brad Evans examines some of the bolder claims to guide fantasy managers and sports bettors to profitability.
The Claim: ESPN’s Dan Graziano believes Justin Fields will be Pittsburgh’s Week 1 starter over Russell Wilson when training camp breaks later this month. In their season opener, the Steelers travel to Atlanta to square off against Kirk Cousins and the Falcons.
B.S. Barometer: 2.5 (1 = buyable; 5 = a heaping pile).
The Spin: This is merely one insider’s take on how the highly competitive quarterback battle will shake out in the Steel City, but it’s entirely buyable. Wilson’s diva tendencies, advanced age and gradual skills erosion could land him on the sidelines to start. Even if Graziano’s projection proves wrong, the veteran’s leash is only inches long.
Fields’ rawness as a passer was evident in Chicago. He was solid under pressure and on deep-ball opportunities, but he ranked QB17 or lower in several completion percentage categories. However, his dynamism extending plays and chewing up real estate with his legs are critical differentiators, and his rushing ability meshes well with the 1-2 RB punch of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
That mobility is capable of maximizing opportunities behind a bottom-half offensive line. Fields’ 50.5 rushing yards per game in 2023 is quite replicable.
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To be fair, Wilson is a more accurate short-to-intermediate passer. Last year in an unsavory situation with the Broncos, he finished QB9 in red-zone completion percentage. Still, Fields simply brings more scoring juice.
Throughout this summer, BestBall drafters have preferred Wilson over the more electric Fields — a presumed ill-fated strategy. Pittsburgh owns the fifth-hardest projected fantasy schedule for quarterbacks, but in 2022 and 2023, the former Bears slinger finished QB9 or better in fantasy points per game.
Yours truly gleefully snagged Fields in Round 10 of Scott Fish 14, a SuperFlex-formatted 12-team league. As my third QB behind Josh Allen and Jared Goff, the selection oozed nothing but upside.
In BestBall drafts conducted over the last month, the Pittsburgh passers fascinatingly have, on average, gone QB28 (Wilson at an 191.23 ADP) and QB29 (Fields at a 202.95 ADP). Much is to be determined, but if the rumbles about Fields grow louder, expect the script to flip and the ADP gap to widen dramatically.
Bottom line: There currently isn’t a better QB value on fantasy draft boards than the flashier Fields.