The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Atlanta Falcons.
Fantasy value — Diontae Johnson, WR (ADP: 98.46, WR38)
The slippery underneath weapon is sure to be a target hog. Of course, passes coming off the hand of Bryce Young may require Johnson to undergo an instant growth spurt in order to haul in inaccurate pigskin spins, but his fantasy potential is still rather significant.
Adam Thielen and rookie Xavier Legette will vie for Young’s attention, but 125-135 targets for Johnson in his first season with the Panthers is entirely buyable. As his top-35 standings in expected fantasy points, fantasy points per route run and yards per reception (14.1) last year with the Steelers indicate, the guileful receiver is reliable whether on quick hook hits or field-stretching posts. In each of his last four seasons in Pittsburgh, Johnson finished inside the WR top 40 in fantasy points per game.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
As his outside-the-top-20 rankings in several completion percentage categories show, Young isn’t exactly the most dependable of quarterbacks. In a game of ax throwing, he would endanger the lives of onlookers. Still, the projected volume, Johnson’s route versatility and Carolina’s ninth-easiest projected strength of schedule for fantasy wideouts point to a final output around 75-975-6. Given the discounted ADP, there’s plenty of profit potential.
Prop pick — Jonathon Brooks OVER 4.5 rushing touchdowns (-110, DraftKings)
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Arguably the best prospect in this year’s somewhat underwhelming RB draft class, the Texas product has the vision, contact balance and power to make an instant impact. Last season with Hook ‘em ‘Horns, he finished top-35 nationally in YAC per attempt (3.91), total missed tackles forced (19) and carries of 15-plus yards (16). With ideal size (6 foot, 207 pounds) and experience in gap and zone concepts, Brooks should bang home what’s needed.
Coming off an ACL tear suffered in November, the 2024 No. 46 overall pick is currently on the active/non-football injury list. Brooks could be activated anytime, but Carolina is likely to bring him along slowly.
With Brooks behind the 8-ball and with Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders dominating first-team snaps in camp, exercising patience is key. Once up to speed, Brooks should overtake lead-back duties in short order.
The Panthers’ questionable offensive line lends pause, and Carolina has the hardest strength of schedule for fantasy running backs. When healthy, though, Brooks should receive enough action to cross the chalk at least five times in Year 1.
Team lean — Panthers UNDER 5.5 wins (+102, FanDuel)
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The Panthers will be in the running for worst team in the league. With that low expectation, their last winless team odds are an attractive +800 at DraftKings.
On the plus side, Carolina owns the third-easiest overall strength of schedule entering the season. ESPN’s Mike Clay gives the Panthers a 50% or greater win probability in seven games. However, with their near bottom barrel defense and unexciting offense, siding with plus money on the UNDER is hard to ignore. In the end, Captain Hook comes into play.
Apologies, Dave Canales and company. Can Steve Beuerlein come out of retirement?