The slowest week in the American sports calendar is upon us, but there are still opportunities to make bets. The biggest event of the week is Tuesday’s MLB All-Star Game at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
The big story going into the game is the National League’s starting pitcher — Pirates rookie Paul Skenes, who has already dazzled on the mound a year after leading LSU to a College World Series title. The American League announced Monday that Orioles ace Corbin Burnes will get the nod as its starter.
The pick — UNDER 7.5 total runs (-110, FanDuel)
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Every year, there are games where you look to bet the under. The first one that comes to mind is Army-Navy football in December. I also bet the under on most NBA playoff Game 7s right when the number is released. This year, I applied the same strategy to NHL playoff Game 7s and had success betting the under.
Another annual event that I look to bet the under is the MLB All-Star Game.
I’m not huge into trends to dictate what I wager, but there have been some lower-scoring All-Star games recently. The last four editions of the Midsummer Classic have had seven runs or fewer scored. The 2018 game had a final of 8-6, but before that, the 2016 and 2017 contests were 4-2 and 2-1, respectively.
The reason I put more weight into the recent trend of low-scoring games is the way baseball is played these days. It’s no secret that runs are down and strikeouts are up compared to the past. I believe that this style of play has translated into runs coming at a premium in the All-Star Game, especially with pitchers typically go just one inning and throw their best stuff for that frame.
Also, Tuesday’s game will be played indoors, as the roof in Arlington will be closed because of temperatures in the 90s. That could prevent balls from carrying and decrease the chances of home runs being hit.
Another reason I like this bet is because there are no extra innings in the All-Star Game anymore. Now, a tie after nine innings results in an All-Star Tiebreaker Home Run Derby. The rule was introduced in 2022, but since its inception, both games concluded in nine innings.
The security of not having multiple runs being scored in extra innings to ruin an under bet is nice to have. A score of 3-3 after nine innings would be a win.
I don’t know if this will be a blind bet going forward, but as long as the total is 7.5 runs for the MLB All-Star Game, I’m always going to bet the under.