The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Los Angeles Chargers.
Fantasy value — J.K. Dobbins, RB (ADP: 200.14, RB56)
Once fawned over by fantasy zealots before a string of unfortunate physical ailments sapped his potential, Dobbins is hoping a fresh start in L.A. will conjure the pre-injury beast that finished RB20 in total fantasy points among 2020 rushers.
In April, Dobbins greatly downplayed the long recovery road from an Achilles tear last September. Historically, running backs who endure such an injury rarely, if ever, resemble even 75% of the rusher they were.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Yes, the unknowns are evident, but given Dobbins’ rock-bottom price tag in yearly leagues, he’s worth the minimized risk. His tag-team partner in Baltimore, Gus Edwards, will spin the “Bus” wheels likely 11-13 times per game, but Dobbins should occasionally supplant him, possibly up to 15 times per contest. After all, Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman has quite the track record of play-calling conservatism. In his 11 years as OC for the 49ers and Ravens, his offenses finished No. 9 or higher in total rush attempts.
If Dobbins proves to be a medical marvel, 1,000 combined yards and five-plus touchdowns are within reach.
Prop pick — Ladd McConkey OVER 4.5 touchdowns (+120, DraftKings)
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Back and ankle injuries severely stunted McConkey’s senior-year potential at Georgia, but it’s unwise to dwell on his superficial lack of 2023 production. Admittedly, this is a bit of a wild-card wager, but, as the second-round pick’s 4.39 40-yard speed suggests, he's an experienced slot receiver with the wheels and wiggle to generate space.
Reportedly, the rookie built an early rapport with Justin Herbert in May OTAs. Without much competition on the roster, McConkey could become an all-zones favorite for the established arm straight away. Roman’s ground and pound scheme limits his potential, but five touchdowns isn’t much of a stretch on a team that should log considerable garbage time.
McConkey is a name to underline on fantasy cheat sheets for the later rounds (ADP: 151.34, WR48).
Team lean — Chargers UNDER 8.5 wins (+130, DraftKings)
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Are Lance Alworth, Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson — presumably still dripping from a cannonball splash in the Fountain of Youth — suddenly coming out of retirement?
The Chargers have the second-easiest overall strength of schedule, and ESPN’s Mike Clay gives them a 55% or greater win probability in seven games. But do you honestly believe Jim Harbaugh can quickly fix a franchise with glaring defensive holes, an average O-line and a questionable offense?
Call this shrewd bettor a skeptic. Six or seven victories are most realistic.