The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Denver Broncos.
Fantasy value — Jaleel McLaughlin, RB (ADP: 192.79, RB53)
My sincere condolences, “Juggernaut” Javonte Williams enthusiasts. A full fade is coming from this loudmouth, a man who once demanded an REO Speedwagon classic play at high volume every time the Broncos running back’s name was mentioned. Yes, the love for Williams has waned. Why? Sean Payton is infatuated with McLaughlin.
Throughout the offseason, Denver’s head coach has continuously gushed about the second-year rusher’s potential. Payton is enamored with the youngster's burst, versatility and his early-bird work ethic.
The signs are clear McLaughlin will be given every opportunity to take control of the backfield over Williams, Samaje Perine and others come training camp. If the former undrafted free agent establishes a firm grip, McLaughlin could be the next great under-the-radar franchise RB like Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell, Olandis Gary and C.J. Anderson.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
At 5-foot-7 and 187 pounds, McLaughlin doesn’t possess ideal size for a workhorse back. However, he was lethal in limited doses last year. On 76 rushing attempts, he tallied 3.38 yards per contact per attempt (RB5), forced a missed tackle 26.3% of the time and averaged 4.42 yards created per touch (RB6). Also equipped with reliable hands (86.1 catch percentage in 2023) and a growing route tree, he’s likely to boost the bottom line with 35-40 receptions.
Much is to be determined when camp opens in late July, but with a strong showing, McLaughlin should carve out a formidable role of 8-11 touches per game at a minimum. With an offensive line that ESPN’s Mike Clay projects to be a top-10 unit and his script-agnostic skill set, he’s unquestionably one of my favorite fantasy Rip Van Winkles. Stockpile shares.
Prop pick — Bo Nix OVER 2850.5 passing yards (-110, DraftKings)
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The rookie quarterback’s passing touchdowns prop was discussed previously. If the belief is an overachieving Year 1, correlating the OVER on passing yards only makes sense. After all, according to Fantasy Nerds, the Oregon product has the ninth-easiest strength of schedule among fantasy QBs.
Last season with the Ducks, Nix set the college football world ablaze. He finished No. 1 among all Division I passers in adjusted completion percentage. Overall, he displayed a cool pocket demeanor, plus arm velocity and multi-level throw capability.
Nix is expected to earn the starting QB gig coming out of training camp. Given the Broncos’ likely forgiving defense, he’s destined to average well north of the needed 167.7 passing yards per game. Meaningless numbers compiled in garbage time still count, folks. Sharpie this prognosticator for 3,000 to 3,200 passing yards this fall.
Team lean — Broncos UNDER 5.5 wins (+132, FanDuel)
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The good news? Top WR Courtland Sutton, who has been at a contract extension impasse this offseason, reportedly confirmed he will be at mandatory minicamp later this month. The bad news? Denver is still very much a young team in transition and has the seventh-hardest overall strength of schedule.
Depressingly, ESPN’s Clay gives the My Little Ponies a win probability of 50% or greater in ONE lousy game this fall. Stock up on the Stranahan’s, Orange Crush faithful.