The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Dallas Cowboys.
Fantasy value — Ezekiel Elliott, RB (ADP: 177.48, RB42)
Don’t be an ageist. At his very affordable ADP, the bushy-bearded veteran could undergo a renaissance in his second tour of duty with Dallas. No, we’re not turning back the clock to his RB1 days of yesteryear, but due to the Cowboys’ efficient vertical attack, he could clean up on goal-to-go opportunities.
Also, ESPN’s Mike Clay projects Big D with a 55% or greater win probability in 14 games. What does that mean? Likely positive game scripts.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Candidly, Elliott’s advanced numbers profile from last season and the ‘Boys' sketchy offensive line reduce confidence. However, only Rico Dowdle, who was undrafted in 2020, will push him for touches. With that in mind, it’s entirely fathomable Elliott scores 8-10 touchdowns and finishes around 1,000 total yards.
At his RB3 price, consider Zeke a high-quality bench crutch.
Prop pick — Dak Prescott UNDER 32.5 passing TDs (-140, DraftKings)
Want clear-cut evidence of how absurd this number is? The exact same prop at BetMGM is 28.5 at a standard -110 juice on either end. If you’re the patient type willing to tie up dollars for months, this is a gift from the gambling gods — even at a -140 juice.
Early projections from several noteworthy prognosticators have Dak in the 27-31 TD range, a very believable outcome. According to Fantasy Nerds, the Cowboys QB owns the fourth-hardest fantasy schedule among starting passers.
To be fair, Prescott finished QB7 in red-zone completion percentage last season, has crushed the proposed total in two of the last three years and will often spin spirals to arguably the best WR in the game in CeeDee Lamb. Still, with the injury imp always on the prowl and given the unsavory slate, betting the under on Dak’s jacked total is advisable.
Team lean — Cowboys OVER 10.5 wins (+105, BetMGM)
As mentioned above, ESPN’s Clay is just one numbers cruncher who envisions Dallas winning often. Per Sharp Football, Dallas’ 11th-toughest schedule isn’t overly taxing. With a likely top-five defense and top-half offense, the Cowboys should press Philadelphia for the NFC East title, if not secure it outright.
Unless injury devastation shrinks Big D, tailing the OVER on wins at plus money is a sensible lean.