To assist in your annual plight to win the NCAA Tournament office pool. Brad Evans breaks down his favorite picks section by glorious section. Bold and very disputable, here’s his breakdown of the East Region. Fade or follow? That’s up to YOU!
Region winner -- Arizona Wildcats (-120 to reach Final Four, DraftKings)
For a program widely regarded as consistently being one of the nation’s best, Arizona hasn’t secured a Final Four berth in 25 years. Oh the luscious locks this now follicaly challenged head sported in 2021. Suffice it to say, it’s been more than a minute. However, that streak should abruptly come to an end. Tommy Lloyd features unfazed guards (Jayden Bradley, Anthony Dell’Oso, Brayden Burries), behemoth bigs (Tobe Awaka, Motiejus Krivas) and a suitable bench. The No. 2 ranked team overall on BartTorvik since February 1, the Wildcats suffocate teams defensively, evidenced by their No. 6 standing in effective field-goal percentage D. Tireless on the glass and highly active at the free-throw line, they exhibit few, if any, weaknesses. Threes are arguably their only downside -- and that’s a rickety argument. Only 26.5 percent of their shots came from distance over their final 12 games, but Dell’Orso and Burries were microwaves at times. Taking the Big 12 outright and winning key out-of-conference games against Florida, UCLA, UConn and Alabama, the Wildcats should earn their Friskies en route to Indianapolis.
Cinderella special (11+ seed) -- Texas Longhorns (To reach Sweet Sixteen +1200, DraftKings)
It’s a stretch to call a Power Five team a Cinderella, but humor this scribe. Fortunate to even make Dayton after tumbling down the mountainside to finish the Big 12 season, the ‘Horns could take advantage of their second life lease. Yes, they’re a mediocre No. 51 overall on BartTorvik in their last 10 games, but entering the Dance No. 28 in points per possession scored (1.237), they have the potential to catch fire. Sean Miller’s club is assertive, cashing in often at the line while sinking equalizers at a 37.4 percent clip since February 1. Matas Vokietaitis is also a load in the post. Impactful on both ends, the seven-foot Lithuanian is a mismatch for most teams. Grab victory against NC State in the First Four and UT has excellent odds of upsetting AJ Dybantsa and BYU. Keep in mind the Cougars are No. 308 in effective field-goal percentage D in their last 13 games. Fun fact: a First Four team has gone on to win another game in 12 of 14 years of its existence.
Sleeper shot (No. 3-No. 11 seed) -- Wisconsin Badgers (To reach Sweet Sixteen +110, DraftKings)
Beer, cheese, the Green Bay Packers and Wisconsin basketball. Sorry Milwaukee Bucks, but you’re no longer relevant. Bucky is all the talk of the Badger State at the moment -- and appropriately so. Trading in the grind-the-clock half-court teams of yesteryear, Greg Gard features an uptempo brand with arguably the best backcourt in the country. Nick Boyd and John Blackwell are trash talking guards who brilliantly drive, distribute, create and/or finish -- whether amongst the trees or plunging daggers from outside. Since February 1, Frank Kaminsky U is No. 9 on BartTorvik overall, ranking No. 3 nationally in points per possession scored (1.323). Though mostly inadequate corralling rebounds and protecting the rim on D, they make up for obvious weaknesses by committing few turnovers and splashing repeated threes. Keep in mind, over 50% of their shots come from three. Bombs away. The Men from Madison are unquestionably a dark horse, though the draw is admittedly tough. On, Wisconsin!
Best opening round bet -- Utah State -2.5 vs. Villanova (-110, BetMGM)
Admittedly, this season’s Mountain West is more of a bunny hill in terms of overall power. Historically a multi-bid league, Utah State is the league’s lone representative in this year’s bracket. Still, don’t underestimate Jerrod Calhoun’s club. Explosive on offense and underrated athletically, the Aggies have the bounce and scoring skills to compete. Since February 1, they're No. 38 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense, netting 58.1 percent from two and 35.8 percent from two. Their opponent, Villanova, is nowhere close to the caliber of teams from yesteryear. The Wildcats are weak on the glass and slot an unattractive No. 201 in eFG% D over their last 11 games. Highly reliant on turnovers, ‘Nova is at a disadvantage versus a Utah State team with quality ball handlers. MWC teams are only 35-67 ATS in NCAA Tournament games since 2010, but the Aggies have a premium matchup in a coinflip 8-9.