Big teams. Big games. Big Ten.
In one of the premier league’s in the land, the stage is set for this year’s regular season conference title to come down to the bitter end. The action will be fierce. The action will be furious. And whoever emerges from the fray will certainly earn the honor.
With Purdue mired in a midseason slump, four horses have sprinted to the forefront -- Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois and, of all teams, Nebraska. The Wolverines handed the Huskers, who were down two key starters in Braden Frager and Rienk Mast, their first league loss on Tuesday. With all four squads sporting only one loss in conference play and each with at least 10 regular season games remaining, strap in -- this ride is going to be one for the ages.
Among the pacesetters, who will add a trophy to the case? Nerding out on the numbers, this is how this Big Ten hoops enthusiast handicaps the field (Picks in order):
Illinois (B1G record: 8-1, BetMGM Odds: +350) - Yes, this graduate closed down several bars on Green Street in his physical prime, but speaking objectively, the Illini are a sensational value to take the league. It’s entirely doable. They must split road matchups at Nebraska and at Michigan State and their West Coast swing will be tricky, but with a win at Mackey already on the resume and Michigan coming to Champaign, the title path is visible.
Thanks in large part to the stellar play of diaper dandy Keaton Wagler, the Orange and Blue own an all-time KenPom best 1.305 points per possession on offense. With Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic on roster, they’re also the longest team in the nation. Illinois can seriously wax that glass.
If its defense intensifies, Illinois -- No. 7 overall on BartTorvik since January 1 -- will grab its second Big Ten title in the Brad Underwood era. And keep in mind starting point guard Kylan Boswell -- arguably the best defensive PG in the conference -- is likely to return from a hand injury sometime in mid-February.
Toughest remaining games: at Nebraska, at Michigan State, at USC, at UCLA, vs. Michigan
Nebraska (B1G record: 9-1, BetMGM Odds: +290) - Prior to the season beginning, Nebraska’s odds of winning the Big Ten were on par with this individual finishing an Applebee’s O-M-Cheesburger without requiring a triple bypass. Yet, here we are.
As previously argued, the Huskers are the Football Hoosiers of hoops. Yes, they’re now blemished unlike the gridiron’s national champs, but their unexpected out-of-nowhere story is virtually the same. Widely predicted to finish in the league’s bottom half, they’ve exceeded expectations through a remarkable connectedness. It explains why they’re No. 3 overall on BarTorvik in their last eight games.
Even without starters Braden Frager and Reink Mast they pushed Michigan to the limit. Nebraska’s consistent shot-making along with a top-10 defense (0.904 pts/poss allowed since Jan. 1) are why it has a considerable chance to win its first ever league title. Of the bunch, it arguably has the most favorable rest-of-season schedule.
Toughest remaining games: vs. Illinois, vs. Purdue, at Iowa, at USC, at UCLA
Michigan (B1G record: 9-1, BetMGM Odds: +100) - Knocking Nebraska from the ranks of the unbeaten earlier this week in a back alley brawl inside Crysler Arena, the Wolverines immediately leveled the Big Ten playing field. Once widely perceived to be unstoppable, Michigan’s practically unfathomable ankle wrench against Wisconsin has it firmly locked in the league’s head-to-head title race.
Still formidable on paper, Dusty May’s men are one of three teams -- Arizona and Duke the others -- to rank inside the top-10 in offensive and defensive rating on KenPom. With the strong guard play of Elliot Cadeau, paint mastery of Aidy Mara and all-around execution from Yaxel Lendeborg, they’re unbelievably balanced.
Michigan is probably best equipped to end the B1G’s 26-year national championship drought, but with daunting road matchups against Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois and Iowa left, it shouldn’t be even money to earn regular season bragging rights.
Toughest remaining games: at Michigan State, at Ohio State, at Purdue, at Illinois, at Iowa, vs. Michigan State
Michigan State (B1G record: 9-1, BetMGM Odds: +650) - Earlier this week, the Sparty Party inexplicably almost ran out of beer. It’s furious comeback at Rutgers once again proved winning on the road is often an arduous task. But due to Divine Ugochukwu’s game-tying three to end regulation, the heavenly help received propelled Michigan State to a sweat-free overtime victory. Crisis averted.
The passion still burns for the 70-year-old Tom Izzo. Per usual, his MSU team is one of the nation’s nastiest on the glass (top-six in offensive and defensive rebounding% nationally), tenacious on the interior, stiff defensively (No. 1 in D efficiency) and incredibly unselfish (No. 2 in A/FGM). The club is unquestionably blue collar in its approach.
A propensity for coughing up the rock combined with a frightening remaining schedule has the Spartans revisiting Thermopylae. The scenario is tough, but Izzo’s team has the fight to at least stay in the title conversation.
Toughest remaining games: vs. Michigan, vs. Illinois, at Wisconsin, at Purdue, at Indiana, at Michigan
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