Last week, we wrote extensively about Michigan’s dominance and very buyable national title prospects. Once again flashing forward TO THE FUTURE, Brad Evans examines other lookahead markets he believes are worth your betting consideration.
Today’s snapshot: Long shot (20/1 or greater) national title tickets
Illinois Fighting Illini (+2000, FanDuel) - Orange and Blue bias? This Illinois hoops enthusiast knows precisely what you’re thinking, but taking a step back, analyzing the data and speaking as objectively as possible, the I-L-L could have this scribe streaking the Quad in celebration come early April.
Brad Underwood’s team is the tallest in the country with one of the game’s premier rim protectors in Zvonimir Ivisic coming off the bench. What a luxury. Also featuring a future NBA lottery pick in freshman sensation Keaton Wagler, a two-way enforcer at the point in Kylan Boswell and a dynamite rim attacker in Andrej Stojakavic, the Illini own the versatility needed to weather even the most potent opponent storm. An elite offensive team (No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency) and rock solid defensively (No. 19 in eFG% D), their profile glistens. Tack on their elite rebounding and Illinois presents a matchup problem for almost anyone.
Winning consistently in Champaign and away (4-1 in road game), they’re battle tested and tough. Illinois’ top-10 KenPom standing is duly earned.
The Illini are one stirring March run away from making this scribe’s millennium. It’s no bong-rip hallucination it could actually happen.
(UPDATE: With Boswell out a month (hand) and a difficult stretch upcoming, it's quite possible the number above inflates in the near future. Patience, grasshopper. Patience.)
Nebraska Cornhuskers (+4000, BetMGM) - As argued previously, if there’s a Football Hoosiers of hoops, it’s undoubtedly the ‘Huskers. Floor scrubbers for a number of years in its Big Ten existence, Nebraska has secured only eight NCAA Tournament berths all-time, not once advancing a single line.
Suggesting a team with absolutely no track record of March success may be a clear sign of insanity, but this college basketball looney bird isn’t living in some alternate dimension. Fred Hoiberg’s collective are well-coached, offensively talented and stout defensively. At print time, the ‘Huskers are No. 22 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 12 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Displaying balance in March is imperative and Jamarques Lawrence and friends have it.
Most outstandingly, Nebraska has knocked off stiff competition away from Lincoln. See its last second sinking of Illinois in Champaign and the come-from-behind victory in Bloomington. Heck, they could probably defeat the Tune Squad with relative ease no matter where in the galaxy they played.
Nebraska isn’t some desert mirage. The ‘Huskers could pull off the unthinkable and end the Big Ten’s 26-year national title drought.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans' latest NCAA Tournament projections ]
Virginia Cavaliers (+4500, BetMGM) - The Tony Bennett national champion from 2019 may be well in the rearview, but current head coach Ryan Odom has the Cavs on course to possibly reach Indianapolis.
Unlike prior iterations of Virginia basketball, this year’s group is comfortable playing at variable paces. No longer deeply committed to draining shot clocks on every possession, this year’s Cavs have repeatedly proven they can win in half-court oriented or briskly paced contests.
Most eye opening, they’re taking games in tough road environments. Currently 4-1 away from Charlottesville, they’ve secured triumphs over quality opponents Texas, SMU, Louisville and NC State on their turf.
The Cavs' metrics profile is equally glowing. They’re one of nine teams nationally that slots inside the top-20 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Phenomenal from outside (37.1 3PT%), crashing the offensive glass (No. 3 in OR%) and everywhere defensively, they own few weaknesses. When tossing in its frontcourt size and plus depth, Virginia has the makeup of a Final Four dark horse. Don’t underestimate Malik Thomas and company.
Arkansas Razorbacks (+8000, BetMGM) - The worst defense in the KenPom era -- a period stretching back to the late 90s -- to win a national championship was Baylor in 2021. That season, Scott Drew’s Bears -- led by the brilliant Jared Butler -- finished No. 22 overall in adjusted defensive efficiency. The welcoming Razorbacks are currently No. 62 in the category. Suffice to say, Jon Calipari needs to imprint a willingness to guard on his players’ DNA.
Despite their defensive transgressions, the Bud Walton patrons are a recommended Hail Mary chuck at 80/1. They boast one of the best floor generals in the country in Darius Acuff and rank in the upper echelon of Division I in myriad offensive categories -- including points per possession scored (1.252), three-point percentage (38.3%), turnover percentage (13.7%), free-throw percentage (75.7%) and assist-to-field-goals made (56.0%).
Breakneck ballers (No. 20 in adjusted tempo), the Hogs possess the size, scoring prowess and depth needed to continuously survive and advance in March. At 3-2 in the SEC, they’re unlikely to take the conference, but presumably a No. 4-No. 6 seed come NCAA Tournament time, they could upend brackets if their defense tightens.