The Pick: Michigan to win the national title (+450, DraftKings)
A wonderful and perfectly timed distraction.
As Sherrone Moore wielded a butter knife and blowtorched his life off the gridiron, Dusty May and his insanely talented Wolverines continuously smoked scoreboards on the court.
Kyle Whittingham’s arrival from Utah gives the football program renewed optimism. However, Maize and Blue loyalists are entirely focused on the banner-raising possibilities inside Chrysler Arena.
As they should be. This team is special.
Not since the groundbreaking Fab Five has this Michigan program exuded so much confidence, so much supreme execution and so much national title hope.
The 2026 Chinese New Year brings the Year of the Fire Horse. In Ann Arbor, it's an appropriate representative. The ablaze bronco symbolizes intense energy, bold action and dream chasing. With an eye on the grandest prize, Yaxel Lendeborg and company embody all of those qualities.
Entering conference play, the Wolverines are a heavy favorite (-200 at BetMGM) to win its fifth Big Ten title in the school’s 118-year hoops history. They’re also the frontrunner to cut down the nets on April 6 in nearby Indianapolis.
Here are five reasons why Michigan has all the characteristics of a national champion:
1) Size. At No. 30 nationally in average height and featuring an intimidating two-way rim runner in 7-foot-3 UCLA transfer Ady Mara, Michigan is a matchup nightmare for practically every school. It ranks top-55 nationally in offense and defensive rebound percentage. Most incredibly, it’s numero uno in two-point percentage offense, netting an obscene 65.1% inside the arc. The sheer length of Mara, Lendeborg and interior enforcer Morez Johnson will have any opposing coach waking up in a cold sweat.
2) Lockdown D. Mara’s presence in the post along with Michigan’s other long drinks makes scoring buckets inside against it an arduous task. Almost unfathomably, it’s surrendered under 39% inside the arc and below 30% along the perimeter. In total, the Wolverines have given up only 0.879 points per possession, No. 1 in all of college basketball.
And it’s not like they’ve played nothing but Screw Me States. In non-conference action, they played the 15th-toughest schedule in the country. As Gonzaga can attest -- UM mollywhopped it 101-61 November 26 in Vegas -- scoring is quite the chore against them on a per possession basis. Just … stifling.
3) Scoring versatility. A guest on The Field of 68 podcast earlier this week, May talked about how unselfish his club is. They’re packed with stars, but they’ve fully bought into elevating the collective’s game. No surprise, UM has logged an assist on 63.2% of field-goals made, tops in the Big Ten.
Unfettered teamwork is always a hallmark of trophy hoisting champions. Couple that with its remarkable shooting inside and out (38.3 3PT% No. 38 nationally) and they simply rain buckets in variable ways. Very few teams, if any, are capable of shutting off their free-flowing faucet.
4) Depth. Slotting No. 30 in bench minutes, May has a bevy of quality crutches to lean on. Seniors Roddy Gayle and Will Tschetter have contributed meaningfully. Meanwhile, Trey McKenney (38.3 3PT%) and LJ Carson (39.4 3PT%) have splashed repeated threes.
Fortunately, they’ve avoided significant injuries, but if setbacks were to occur, they have the bodies necessary to weather storms.
5) Reliable guard play. If you would’ve asked any college hoops insider in November what Michigan’s biggest potential weak point was, they would’ve undoubtedly said the guard position. As May recently told The Field of 68, point guard Elliot Cadeau’s shot has “greatly exceeded expectations.” Netting 45.8% from distance while ranking top-50 in assist rate, the North Carolina transfer’s production has been surprisingly stellar.
Dependable guards are fundamental for NCAA Tournament success. Cadeau, Nimari Burnett, McKenney and Carson comprise one heck of a backcourt.
KenPom’s +4.58 net rating discrepancy between No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Duke is outlandish — OUTLANDISH! Whether via the eye test or advance measurements, May’s bunch is bar none the nation’s best.
In the NCAA Tournament’s single elimination format anything is possible. Then No. 1 seed Purdue’s ousting at the hands of Fairleigh Dickinson three years ago immediately comes to mind. Right now, there’s a viable argument roughly 8-10 teams are in the national title conversation. It’s all about getting hot at the right time.
Though some believe Michigan has a legitimate shot of running the table, it will likely get blemished at some point. Projected to finish 18-2 at KenPom in a rough and tumble Big Ten, it will inevitably get pushed. Still, with six 100-point performances already to its name and considering its across-the-board strengths, it has a chance to achieve complete invincibility.
Currently +450 to win the whole shebang, Michigan's title price is sure to shrink. If you’ve yet to buy in, the timing is right. The Big Ten's 25-year national champion drought could finally end.