Snapping a Polaroid pick on each major fantasy football position, The Gaming Juice’s painfully average predictor, Brad Evans, dishes his picks on which players he believes will flourish, fail and make wallets fat. Fade or follow -- that’s up to YOU.
Today’s tackle: Running Backs.
BOOM (Player who will greatly exceed his ADP)
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs (ADP: RB23, 65.63) - Take shelter, would-be tacklers. Kansas City’s stick of dynamite is healthy, lit and ready to bring the pain.
A runner who never shies away from contact, ‘The Punisher’ always wakes up and chooses violence.
Reflect on his past results. Pushing full throttle in 2023, he finished RB15 in half-point PPR formats. Also spectacular under the hood over that campaign, Pacheco ranked RB21 in YAC per attempt (3.04), RB23 in missed tackles forced (35 in 14 games) and RB7 in red-zone touches (50). Overall, he scored nine combined touchdowns and secured 44 receptions.
A broken fibula greatly diminished his contributions last year. Missing nine games due to the setback, his usual power and between-the-tackles explosion were largely sequestered. Those limitations explain why he worked in concert with ham-and-egger Kareem Hunt once activated, totaling unexciting numbers in the process.
Andy Reid talked up Pacheco’s potential bounce back as early as late May when he described him “looking tremendous.” Anyone with functional retina noticed a similar outward appearance throughout training camp and the Preseason.
Running behind a projected top-10 offensive line and entrenched in a chain-moving offense, KC's RB1 is likely to tally around 1250-1350 total yards and double-digit scores.
Dish out the hurt, Punisher.
BUST (Player who is unlikely to profit at his ADP)
De’Von Achane, Dolphins (ADP: RB8, 18.14) - This writer’s disdain for almost everything associated with Miami is well-stated. Mike McDaniels may already be a dead-man walking. HIs defense is in shambles. Achane (calf) and other backs are already dealing with physical setbacks and Tyreek Hill has made public admissions about not fully understanding the offense.
Again, the cracks in the dam are expanding.
Detailed previously, there are some positives on South Beach for the PPR masses. As he displayed last year, the third-year drag racer has reliable hands. Luring 15.6% of the target share in '24, he hauled in 768 receptions. Many grabs were of the short-field variety (7.6 yards per reception), but his high-catch volume raises the floor.
Still, undeniable negatives stain the overall profile.
The Playful Porpoises will underwhelm often. A beatable offensive line combined with a red carpet defense isn’t a recipe for fantasy success. As a result, odds are significant the RB’s rush yards and overall TD output will suffer.
Sliding down my personal ranks in recent days, the plan is to avoid Achane.
BANK (Top player prop pick)
Kyren Williams 1,250+ rushing yards (+300, BetMGM) - Pulling carts full of Budweiser is the name of Williams' game. The consummate Clydesdale is the rhythmic pulse of Sean McVay's offense. He's reliable. He's consistent. And he's a certifiable workhorse.
Another exhaustive workload is in his immediate future. Last season on the second-highest opportunity share in the NFL, L.A.'s tireless grinder totaled 82.8% of the team's backfield touches. On a per touch basis, his standing in YAC per attempt (RB42), elusive rating (RB45) and yards created per touch (RB52) were eyesores, but those shortcomings were masked by his overall volume. In 17 games, he amassed 316 rush attempts racking 1,299 rush yards.
Rookie Jarquez Hunter has turned heads this summer, but he's an unintimidating second fiddle. Running behind a rugged Rams offensive line and blessed with the fourth-easiest projected fantasy RB strength of schedule, Williams should operate undeterred. Only a random black bear attack or Matthew Stafford disc slip will hold him back.
At +300 to replicate what he achieved last season, the under-appreciated Round 3 pick (ADP: 27.17, RB12) is a dependable investment in fantasy and betting.
Get seduced by the juice.