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The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Kansas City Chiefs.
Fantasy value — Isiah Pacheco, RB (ADP: 79.67, RB29)
The Punisher is the epitome of a dude who runs with his hair on fire. His downhill style is violent, a pads-cracking approach that generates a ton of yards after initial contact. It does make Pacheco prone to injury — he missed 10 games last season due to fibula and rib setbacks — but when functioning at full strength, he’s a battering ram. His 2.39 YAC per attempt in 2024 was very uncharacteristic.
All initial signs point to Pacheco carrying a large chunk of the mail this season. Kareem Hunt will rotate in, but the veteran is a ham and egger, an unexplosive rusher who recorded only a 2.50 YAC per attempt on 200 carries last year in his second tour of duty with K.C. Hunt registering 8-10 touches per game feels like the maximum.
Pacheco’s slate isn’t the friendliest. The Chiefs own the 13th-hardest projected fantasy RB strength of schedule. However, running behind a drove of trench hogs (Kansas City ranked No. 7 in run blocking efficiency in ’24, according to Pro Football Focus) and playing in an offense that features some dude named Mahomes, Pacheco should often benefit from wide running lanes. Last season, he encountered eight or more men in the box just 17.5% of the time, the 10th-lowest mark among qualifying RBs.
Two seasons ago, Pacheco finished RB15 in total fantasy points scored in half-point PPR formats. A return to the RB2 upper echelon is undoubtedly within the range of outcomes. Buy Andy Reid’s hype.
Prop pick — Patrick Mahomes 30 or more passing touchdowns (+165, DraftKings)
In fantasy circles, the booty scoot king no longer sits on the QB throne. As burned Mahomes investors can attest, statistical elites Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and even Jayden Daniels wear a bejeweled crown.
Last year’s lackluster production may imply to stay away, but Mahomes' perceived abdication is being overvalued. The State Farm pitchman has yet to turn 30, takes snaps behind an almost impenetrable offensive line and has oodles of weapons at his disposal. Rashee Rice (who will serve a yet-to-be-determined suspension), Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and Travis Kelce make up one deadly arsenal.
[ NFL Gamer's Guide: Fantasy forecasts and futures bets for 2025 season ]
Evidenced by his QB10 and QB11 fantasy finishes the past two seasons, thoughts of Mahomes’ 41 passing TDs in 2022 are a distant memory. However, getting back to that level isn’t improbable. He posted the fifth-best red zone completion percentage of any qualifying QB in the NFL last year. And that was with a somewhat ragtag receiving group.
No, Mahomes’ projected fantasy QB strength of schedule isn’t the greatest (QB23), but with key missing parts from ‘24 now healthy and Reid’s need for explosive plays, the quarterback should cross the 30 passing TD threshold for the fifth time in his illustrious career. At +165 to accomplish the feat, Mahomes is an extraordinary season-long value.
Team lean — Chiefs UNDER 11.5 regular-season wins (-120, BetMGM)
By the short hairs on their chinny chin chins. In dramatic fashion, K.C. won 11 regular-season games by eight points or fewer last year. Several of those high-stress victories came in the final two minutes.
Betting on an overworked clutch gene isn’t recommended. Sure, it’s Mahomes, Mr. Taylor Swift and Coach Reid, but even the greats are vulnerable to resetting.
The AFC West is no cakewalk. Its prowess is why the Chiefs rank No. 20 in strength of schedule. Given the rough road, ESPN’s Mike Clay projects the Fightin’ Christian Okoyes to win 9.9 games, handing out a 60% or greater win probability in nine contests. As mentioned above, the slate isn’t exactly a walk in the park for Kansas City.
Yes, the offense should finish inside the top five overall, but with an expected mediocre defense, the once-loved-but-now-loathed Chiefs could take a step back.