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The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Los Angeles Chargers.
Fantasy value — Omarion Hampton, RB (ADP: 46.45, RB17)
In the THIGH SEASON conversation with Saquon Barkley and fawned over former Packer AJ Dillon, Hampton has the tree trunks to lay wood on the competition.
Last year at North Carolina, he was a runaway train, as evidenced by his strong performance in yards after contact (4.35, RB6), missed tackles forced (73, RB3) and breakaway runs (26, RB4). Ideally built for the next level (6-foot and 220 pounds), the rookie should assert himself immediately in Greg Roman’s ground-and-pound scheme. Keep in mind, the Chargers called “run” the 10th-highest number of times (44.91%) in the NFL last season.
With Najee Harris presumably in the doghouse after nearly becoming Nick Fury on the Fourth of July, Hampton could place a stranglehold on the RB1 spot with a solid training camp. No, Harris isn’t going to be relegated to clean-up duty, but 13-15 touches per game for Hampton in Week 1 against the Chiefs is completely buyable. Roman’s praise about the youngster being “the total package” wasn’t hyperbole.
Hampton’s projected strength of schedule (RB18) isn’t the friendliest, but with his all-around skills, he should flourish operating behind arguably a top-10 run-blocking line in Roman’s conservative system.
Approximately 1300-1400 total yards and at least 10 touchdowns are reachable. If achieved, Hampton is likely to finish in the RB1 ranks in 12-teamers. Bank on the Bolt.
Prop pick — Ladd McConkey OVER 1,000.5 receiving yards (-120, BetMGM)
Saddle up the McConkey donkey for the long haul and reap the benefits.
Justin Herbert’s pack mule is always willing to take on sizable workloads. Last season as a rookie, McConkey totaled a hefty 112 targets, 82 receptions, 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns in 16 games.
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For the numbers nerds in attendance, the former Georgia Bulldog also leapt off the screen in several advanced categories. According to PlayerProfiler, McConkey finished in the top 20 among all NFL wide receivers in total YAC (396, WR17), yards per route run (2.56, WR7), contested catch rate (58.8%, WR5) and QB rating per target (123.0, WR8), His WR22 standing in route win percentage (48.2%) also raised eyebrows.
Do you honestly believe McConkey will experience a significant sophomore slump? Unless the unforgiving injury imp bites, it’s unlikely. His separation skills, unchanged scheme and established chemistry with Herbert screams “INVEST.”
Focused on his health and the “art of falling down” this offseason, McConkey ending up well north of 1,000 receiving yards seems like one of the surer bets on the board.
Team lean — Chargers UNDER 9.5 regular-season wins (-105, Caesars)
Given Jim Harbaugh’s coaching genius, Herbert’s established play and the team-wide upgrades, betting against the Chargers may not be recommended. However, the number above is a tad aggressive. They’ll finish in the vicinity of double-digit Ws, but a fairly rugged schedule (14th hardest) thanks to the AFC West pushes the UNDER lean.
ESPN’s Mike Clay gives the Bolts a 50% or greater win probability in just seven contests, projecting 8.5 wins overall. That feels right.
The offense could pack plenty of electricity, but trotting out a presumed bottom-half defense, the Chargers could squander an uncomfortable number of games. Fade.