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“Dominate” is the most overused word in the fantasy football vernacular. Whether listening to radio broadcasts, scrolling through social media feeds or exploring magazine racks, its presence this time of year is inescapable.
Frankly, it’s misleading. It’s tiring. And it’s unquestionably ridiculous.
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Don’t get this Debbie Downer wrong, draft night is important. However, it’s not the be-all-end-all that the mainstream would lead you to believe. Yes, the camaraderie of crushing beers and laughing with your bros is unrivaled, but your draft performance probably isn’t going to determine your season fate. Other factors are always at play.
Subscribe to the fantasy formula. What are its variables? Below is a breakdown of this mathlete’s equation parts. Take your theorem and shove it, Pythagoras.
One-third the draft. As mentioned above, the annual gathering of friends whether in a physical or virtual setting is inarguably a yearly highlight. Sure, your season could immediately step out on a very wrong foot — just ask the Christian McCaffrey investor in your league last year — but where you drafted players isn’t a clear-cut reflection of where they finish.
It’s possible you destroyed the first three picks by selecting Ja’Marr Chase, Jahmyr Gibbs and Lamar Jackson 1-2-3. If you did, continue to talk all the smack. According to ESPN Fantasy, the triumvirate of Chase (29.0%), Gibbs (21.5%) and Jackson (20.8%) made up the top three most rostered players on 2024 championship teams.
Still, it’s impossible to predict the unpredictable. Crazy developments always unfold as the season unwinds. Draft night is only Step 1 in the title process. Don’t overrate it.
One-third trades/transactions. One could easily argue this variable owns more weight. Those who hawk the waiver wire with an eagle eye typically score game-changing players. For example, rookie sensation Bucky Irving, who was plucked early from the free agent pool in shallow formats, was the fourth-most rostered player on ESPN Fantasy championship teams last season. The Buccaneers’ running wrecking ball tallied the fifth-most valuable fantasy output during the money-making season — the fantasy playoffs. He was an indisputable difference maker.
Undoubtedly, active managers who wisely work the wire always generate an advantage. Those open to filling gaps via timely swaps also gain an edge. We all have that shyster who relentlessly badgers leaguemates with lopsided offers like Will Lutz for Saquon Barkley, but when fair trades are executed, they stand to benefit both parties.
Whether stockpiling positions during or after the draft, aim to trade from strength. Inevitably, unexpected twists will occur, turns that will prompt a desire for dealmaking.
Be sensible. Be shrewd. You could be one move away from boosting the chances of earning bragging rights.
One-third Lady Luck. Over the last decade, the combined bust rate of RBs and WRs drafted in the first round is just north of 40%. Like preparing for a day out with thunderstorm chances in the forecast, it’s wise to pack an umbrella — a downpour could occur.
All it takes is one ankle wrench, one knee buckle, one fumble or one gambling violation (see Jameson Williams and Calvin Ridley) for a player’s value to dramatically alter. Oftentimes, these events are completely unforeseen. Sorry, but you’re not some Nostradamus. The injury imp always lurks in the darkness, unexpectedly striking down a marquee player or three each year. Other miscues are equally difficult to prognosticate. Having players remain upright, productive and roster-able is fundamental to consistent fruitful returns.
Bottom line: Get after it, gamer. Of course, relish new memories forged, but always keep the calculation above in mind.