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The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Houston Texans.
Fantasy value — Jayden Higgins, WR (ADP: 138.6, WR59)
Loud and proud members of Team C.J. Stroud are understandably excited for Higgins’ potential. The former Iowa State Cyclone routinely ripped turf during his days in Ames. Built like a 100-year-old oak tree, the 6-foot-4 wide receiver ranked top-10 among FBS WRs in contested catch receptions (14) in 2024. He also posted a 100-plus passer rating on six different routes.
Higgins’ size and sharpness could occasionally skewer the competition. Whether against zone or man coverage, his footwork and reliable hands will often win. The definition of a “possession receiver,” he has substantial odds of totaling 65-75 receptions in his rookie season. And no bro, that belief wasn’t influenced by psychedelic mushrooms. One insider believes the second-round pick sews up the WR2 spot by the second week of training camp.
Stroud’s No. 35 finish in adjusted completion percentage last season and Houston’s ongoing offensive line concerns dampen the hype. And the Texans’ seventh-hardest fantasy WR schedule only adds to the downside. Still, thoughts of a final line in range of 65-800-5 aren’t nutty. If Higgins can accomplish that, he’ll join the WR3 party in 12-team 0.5 PPR formats.
Similar to this scribe, selecting Higgins is cheap and easy. Bold his name on your cheat sheet.
Prop pick — Joe Mixon UNDER 8.5 rushing touchdowns (-120, BetMGM)
Rub-a-dub-dub! The Chubb Club has reopened. After extensive remodeling due to gnarly knee and foot setbacks, Nick Chubb brings his hammer to Houston. Bank on the former Browns battering ram to drive a few nails in prop overs on Mixon.
The incumbent won’t completely take a backseat to the recent signee. Mixon will still be the main man. However, his 77.7% opportunity share (the fifth-highest among RBs in ’24) is likely to shrink. More specifically, his 60 red-zone touches last season will also minimize. Chubb is a legitimate threat.
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Complicating matters, Mixon is already dealing with ankle/foot issues this summer, ailments which reportedly could delay his on-field arrival at training camp. Entering his age-29 season and having totaled 1,816 career carries, Mixon isn’t exactly a hot-out-the-oven rusher. The offseason pedal issues could be a harbinger of dark days to come.
The Texans’ seventh-easiest fantasy football projected strength of schedule is a plus. However, Mixon’s bland 2024 advanced metrics (RB29 in YAC per attempt, RB22 in missed tackles forced), lingering physical maladies, below-average offensive line and Chubb’s presence douse the upside. A finish well south of 8.5 rushing TDs is very much on the table for him.
Team lean — Texans UNDER 9.5 regular-season wins (-120, Caesars)
DeMeco Ryan’s stifling defense is why his club is projected to once again take the AFC South (-140 at BetMGM). Last season, Will Anderson and friends finished No. 6 in EPA per play D. It’s a swift-kicking unit that struts around in steel-toed boots.
ESPN’s Mike Clay gives H-Town a 55% or greater win probability in 10 games. His algo’s optimism and the Texans’ No. 13 easiest projected strength of schedule suggest this dunce’s pessimism is moronic.
However, the Jaguars, Colts and Titans each improved this offseason. They have their fair share of question marks, but if strides are made, they’ll push the perceived division front-runner from beginning to end. If Houston’s permeable offensive line leaks again and Stroud’s inaccuracy continues, the squad will underachieve.
A five-alarm Texas-chili take? Hardly.