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Season-long player props are beginning to surface across sportsbooks. In an attempt to seek out values, Brad Evans will occasionally make the case on an attractive future — whether betting the OVER or UNDER — as the outside temps rise.
Today’s topic: Cincinnati’s Brown to BOOM.
The pick — Chase Brown to rush for 1,000 or more yards (+175, DraftKings)
Naysayers: You’re a biased, orange-and-blue-bleeding boob who unwaveringly supports players from a particular institution with reckless abandon.
Correct, haters. See Mendenhall, Rashard.
Speak negatively about this subjective Illinois grad and football season ticket holder all you want, but the 2024 breakout feels on Brown were accurate. Heck, they were understated.
This always-wrong voice was just as shocked as you. And the Bengals running back could be even better this season.
[ NFL Gamer's Guide: Fantasy forecasts and futures bets for 2025 season ]
Under the microscope, Brown’s breakthrough was nothing short of marvelous. Beneath his dynamite surface production (229-990-7, 54-360-4), he excelled in multiple advanced metric categories. Most eye-catching were his finishes inside the RB top 20 in yards after contact per attempt (3.08, RB20), total missed tackles forced (46, RB13), total yards created (925, RB19), total red zone touches (55, RB11) and expected fantasy points per game (17.3, RB9).
Most striking were his improvements as a pass blocker and receiver. Brown ranked No. 12 among all RBs in pass-block grade on Pro Football Focus. He also caught 83.1% of his intended looks from Joe Burrow, netting 3.4 receptions per game. Suffice it to say, the PPR masses were pleased.
Playing in Cincinnati’s high-powered offense has its perks. Last season, Brown encountered eight or more men in the box on just 18.3% of snaps played, according to NFL Next Gen stats. Burrow’s vertical efficiency spinning spirals to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and others is sure to lead to a steady serving of exploitable defensive fronts again.
Brown isn’t without risks, however.
The Bengals offensive line and schedule are drags. Up front, Cincy ranked fourth-worst in run-blocking efficiency last year, per PFF. Questions about the unit entering this season remain.
The team’s slate is also unfriendly. According to FullTime Fantasy, the Queen City Cats own the eighth-hardest schedule for fantasy RBs. Ultimately, Brown will have to creatively color outside the lines to meet buyer expectations.
Cincinnati offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher recently talked up Brown, describing him as a “top-10 back in the league.” The player caller also hyped the RB’s improvements in the passing game, noting the backfield’s increased involvement as “something we intend to do.”
Get down with Brown, especially at his wonderfully priced late Round 3 ADP in 12-team leagues (35.23, RB12). The former Illini topping 1,000 ground yards with 40-plus receptions and 10-12 total touchdowns is entirely attainable. He's a tremendous roster building block.
Now please pass the orange Kool-Aid.