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Season-long player props are beginning to surface across sportsbooks. In an attempt to seek out values, Brad Evans will occasionally make the case on an attractive future — whether betting the OVER or UNDER — as the outside temps rise.
Today’s topic: Los Angeles’ after-catch baller.
The pick — Puka Nacua to lead NFL in receiving yards (+1400, DraftKings)
Come year’s end, bettors and fantasy managers alike won’t hesitate calling Nacua “the top gun.” Ice Cube probably agrees.
As witnessed recently on social media, the Rams wide receiver may someday mess around and get a triple-double for a random overseas hoops team, but for now on the gridiron, he’s looking to run deep, so deep, so deep he’ll put defeners to sleep.
Cutting down Ja’Marr Chase and/or Justin Jefferson in the receiving yards race may be a mountain to climb, but Los Angeles’ shining pass-catching star has sharpened scissors in hand.
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Limited to 11 games with a busted bursa last season, Nacua regularly nuked the competition when in uniform. Netting 29.9% of the Rams’ target share (9.9 per game), he amassed 79 receptions, 990 receiving yards and three touchdowns, inflicting damage in a variety of ways whether on screens, quick outs or go routes.
Digging deeper, Nacua was an advanced analytics darling. Despite missing six contests, he finished No. 12 in total YAC and set the pace among all wideouts in yards per route run (4.07) and fantasy points per route run (0.85). Overall among WRs with at least 10 games played, he finished WR4 in 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game.
Healthy entering his third NFL season, the soon-to-be 24-year-old is poised to raise the bar. As his 2024 YAC numbers clearly indicate, Nacua is one of the most physical after-catch weapons in the game.
Even though he may have roamed with Triceratops in the Cretaceous period, Matthew Stafford, even at 37 years old, remains an effective passer. Though quality red-zone spins were infrequent last year, the Rams quarterback finished top 12 in QBR and deep-ball completion rate.
L.A.’s upgraded offensive line and addition of savvy veteran WR Davante Adams will only assist Nacua in his statistical quest. Sure, Adams will siphon occasional looks, but his WR2 presence will lead to more advantageous coverage for the team’s clear No. 1 receiver.
ESPN’s Mike Clay projects Nacua, who switched jersey numbers from 17 to 12, to finish with a 99-1312-6 line. Chase is the only wide receiver Clay forecasts to haul in more yards (1,410).
Given the Rams’ sketchy defense and Sean McVay’s aggressive aerial attack (No. 14 pass percentage in 2024), Nacua is in line for at least 140 targets. If he can avoid the dastardly injury imp, he could flirt with 1,500 receiving yards. Keep in mind per FullTime Fantasy, he owns the seventh-easiest fantasy WR schedule.
Punk ‘em, Puka.