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Season-long player props are beginning to surface across sportsbooks. In an attempt to seek out values, Brad Evans will occasionally make the case on an attractive future — whether betting the OVER or UNDER — as the outside temps rise.
Today’s topic: Dak Prescott’s QB milestone market.
The pick — Dak Prescott to throw for 4,000 or more passing yards (+125, DraftKings)
Stroll through Dallas’ Deep Ellum district, strut into an appealing honky tonk, belly up to the bar, order an ice-cold can of Lone Star and strike up a football conversation with that random partner to your left.
In those cordial exchanges, chances are, optimism about the local ‘Boys will overflow. And, presumably, it’s not the suds talking.
Warm and fuzzy feelings in Big D are understandable. Yes, Jerry Jones made a highly debatable decision in last month’s NFL Draft by going offensive guard in Round 1, but adding George Pickens only days later immediately glossed over the widely panned front office faux pas.
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The former Steelers wide receiver’s pairing with CeeDee Lamb is a match made in heaven.
Dak’s tongue is wagging.
Pickens’ Gumby-like adjustment skills and outside-the-numbers godliness mesh perfectly with Lamb’s all-encompassing slot talents. Entering the 2025 season, the 1-2 receiving punch is arguably the best in the NFC, if not the entire NFL. Toss in tight end Jake Ferguson’s presence along with RB Javonte Williams’ plus receiving chops, and it’s pretty clear Prescott has the weaponry to thrive.
Dallas’ sketchy defense is also an influential piece in Dak’s 4,000-yard puzzle. Last year, it finished No. 28 in EPA per play D. Projected to be a bottom-10 unit once again, its vulnerability is likely to push the quarterback’s overall pass attempts.
If the Cowboys defense indeed underwhelms, Prescott could flirt with 600 chucks this season. Alluring.
Though an abhorrent No. 38 in adjusted completion percentage last year, Prescott finished his injury-shortened 2024 campaign in the top 12 in deep-ball completion rate. With two dynamite field stretchers, his production across the board should rise.
Strangely, Dallas’ under-center star has shined brightest in odd years. In 2019, 2021 and 2023, Prescott threw for at least 4,000 yards. If the pattern holds true, crossing the required threshold is imminent.
According to ESPN’s Mike Clay, Prescott is projected to spin 3,899 passing yards in only 15 games. Given the arsenal upgrade and his unsupportive defense, he should average at least 235.3 passing yards per game.
If he avoids the dastardly injury imp, the signal caller is bound to give everyone something to talk about.
Cowboy UP!