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The Madness is HERE! A certifiable college hoops nut, The Gaming Juice’s Brad Evans gives his NCAA Tournament region-by-region thoughts, discussing his favorite picks to reach San Antonio and what under-the-radar squad could wear a glass slipper.
The pick — Michigan State to reach the Final Four (+420, FanDuel)
Michigan State, the color of St. Patrick’s Day, has kissed every blarney stone. Peaking at the right time, it’s excelling.
As Jeff Goodman recently remarked on The Field of 68 podcast, living legend Tom Izzo is arguably in the midst of his single greatest coaching season ever — even better than in 2000 when Mateen Cleaves and company won the national championship.
Izzo has developed a team with middling preseason Big Ten predictions into a national March powerhouse. What else is new?
Over the past several weeks, the Sparty party has raged. The banger is on the brink of reaching a legendary level.
Michigan State fell short in the Big Ten Tournament, but it has shown Final Four signs. Sliding inside the BartTorvik top five over their last nine games, the Spartans derailed teams with a mixture of glass waxes (top 50 in offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage), midrange splashes and, of course, vintage Izzo defense (0.938 points allowed per possession).
Jase Richardson’s scoring emergence has also provided a much-needed spark. Totaling double figures in his last five games, the freshman guard can give the Spartans an offensive lift off the bounce or with occasional outside splashes. The latter is most crucial.
On the season, State has netted a miserable 30.8% on 3-pointers. However, Richardson and cohorts have converted a once previously unfathomable 36.2%.
If they continue to improve along the arc, a run to the Riverwalk is quite attainable. It’s an Izzo-coached team, for crying out loud.
Auburn is the prohibitive favorite in the South, but given its rebounding issues and recent defensive deterioration, Bruce Pearl’s club seems to be on the mountain’s descent.
At better than 4-to-1 odds to reach the Final Four, chug a green beer.
CINDERELLA SPECIAL (10+ seed that could advance two or more lines)
The pick — UC San Diego to reach the Sweet 16 (+410)
The Big West reps are a big-time sleeper. Bettors in attendance are fully aware.
No team in college basketball has covered the spread better than UCSD (25-7 ATS). It boasts kleptomaniac hands on defense and a smooth outside stroke when in possession.
Eric Olen’s squad rarely makes mistakes. Over the last month, the Tritons rank top-10 nationally in effective field goal percentage offense and effective field goal percentage defense.
New Zealand import Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones has been a phenomenal rim attacker who generates ample points at the charity stripe. Given their consistency from the arc (Hayden Gray hammered 42.8% on 3s), general judiciousness and steady challenges, UC San Diego is seemingly bound to don a glass slipper, especially against turnover-prone Michigan (19.6 TO% over last 30 days) and Texas A&M (18.8 TO%).