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After a generally snooze-worthy Wild Card Weekend, NFL casuals and gamers alike hope the drama spills over this weekend in the Divisional Round. Regardless of the final scores, I’m bound to bite my nails over various bets.
Below is a pair of Saturday specials in Texans-Chiefs and Commanders-Lions.
SGP — Chiefs ML, Xavier Worthy OVER 4.5 rushing yards vs. Texans (+116, Caesars)
Holy mother of the gaming gods! While I waited on pins and needles for this offering to drop, the skies opened up, angels broke into chorus and the divine line descended from the heavens early Thursday morning.
It was immediately grabbed.
As a stand-alone, the OVER on Worthy rushing yards is a rather unpalatable -129 at Caesars. To raise the plus-money seduction, simply tacking on Kansas City to win achieves an irresistible number.
Unless an asteroid impacts Arrowhead Stadium during the game, the Chiefs are bound to secure the victory. In the teams’ first matchup of the season in Week 16, K.C. conquered Houston 27-19.
In that game, Worthy received a season-high-tying three rushing attempts and ran for 10 yards. Cashing the OVER on 4.5 ground yards in six of his last seven games and averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the season, the rookie wide receiver is likely to get a crack or two.
Bottom line: The X-man’s blazing wheels and the Chiefs’ elite offensive line (No. 7 in run blocking, per Pro Football Focus) should get the job done.
Terry McLaurin to lead the game in receiving yards at Lions (+225, DraftKings)
Scary Terry is likely to put a fright into Detroit. Even Nosferatu is shivering at the prospects.
In a game with an astronomical projected total (55.5), McLaurin — who’ll be exchanging pleasantries with a wounded and largely inept Lions secondary — has explosive potential.
Since Week 14, Detroit ranks No 30 in pass EPA defense. Most eye-catching is the Lions allowing THE most wide receiver yards of any NFL team in the regular season.
Adding to the upside, the Commanders WR1 is slated to battle mostly with rookie Terrion Arnold. The Detroit cornerback has given up a 60.4 catch percentage, 99.2 passer rating and the seventh-most yards (728) of any defender. Hello 100-plus yards.
In 17 regular-season games, the fleet-footed McLaurin ranked appreciably in multiple advanced metrics. Most notably, he finished top-10 in total air yards (1,561), total deep targets (26) and QB rating when targeted (133.0). In other words, he has the long-range speed, separation skills and quarterback trust to rack massive gains. Jayden Daniels is sure to unload on a bomb or three in No. 17’s way.
Detroit wideouts Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are considerable threats, but in a game in which Washington is likely to scoreboard-chase, McLaurin is a fabulous value at better than 2-to-1 odds.
Give ‘em the heebie-jeebies, Terry.