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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. Rachaad White anytime touchdown at Cowboys (+120, BetMGM)
Do your best Kevin McCallister, lip-sync The Drifters’ holiday classic and talk to yourself in the mirror post-shower. Oh, and when you apply the aftershave, keep the screaming to a minimum. Yep, a “White Christmas” is indeed upon us. That is, for anytime touchdown backers of the Buccaneers running back. White has been a consistency king of late. Whether operating as a rusher or receiver, he’s hit the pylons in seven of his last eight games. Though he’s outside the position’s top 25 in red-zone touches (25), he’s made the most of his opportunities inside the 20. Generally efficient overall, White is also No. 5 in yards created per touch among all qualifying rushers. His matchup in Week 16 is a chef’s kiss. Dallas is No. 30 in rush EPA defense over the last five weeks. Overall, the Cowpokes have allowed 4.41 yards per carry, 133.9 total yards per game and 16 total TDs to RBs. Consider the plus money price an absolute gift. Unlike Fuller, White shouldn’t wet the bed.
2. Drake Maye OVER 200.5 passing yards at Bills (-115, BetMGM)
In a frigid game sure to trigger shrinkage — game-time temps in Orchard Park are expected to be around 15 degrees — Maye spikes the mercury. This number seems criminally low. The Bills are a disappointing No. 28 in pass EPA defense over the last five weeks, and they’ve surrendered the eighth-most passing yards to QBs (243.1 per game) this season. Equally promising, eight gunslingers have landed well into the 200s through the air against Sean McDermott’s secondary since Week 5. Maye is only No. 26 in air yards per attempt, but being ranked No. 10 in true completion percentage and averaging a busy 28.0 pass attempts per game, he's bound to rip it early and often. Cashing the OVER in seven of his last nine games, the Patriots rookie quarterback should fire with high frequency. Keep in mind New England is a 14-point ‘dog.
BetAlytics grade: B-
3. Najee Harris OVER 11.5 receiving yards at Ravens (-115, BetMGM)
Betting on only a sporadically targeted running back to overproduce in receiving yards is akin to giving Aunt Edna’s holiday fruitcake a try. But go ahead and serve yourself a sliver. Harris and the questionable dessert might surprise you. Yes, the Steelers running back is involved in a loose timeshare with Jaylen Warren. And, yes, Harris has averaged a lowly 6.1 routes per game, totaling a measly 10.3% of the team's target share. However, running the rock has proven generally ineffective against Baltimore, which has surrendered only 3.41 yards per carry and 63.8 rushing yards per game to RBs. Multipurpose backs have logged successful stat lines through the air against the Fighting Poes. This season, Baltimore has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to RBs, and overall, 14 rushers have hauled in a dozen or more receiving yards. Similar to what he tallied against the intra-divisional foe in Week 11 (4-30-0), Harris should be a featured Russell Wilson check-down weapon.
BetAlytics grade: C+
4. Bijan Robinson 100+ rushing yards vs. Giants (+110, BetMGM)
Back in August, random trolls emerged from their holes to berate this prognosticator for backing Bijan as the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts. Because Saquon Barkley exists, the Falcons’ lead back won’t sit atop the RB rankings this year, but currently at RB6 in 0.5 PPR formats, he’s hardly jumped on a grenade. Five times this season — including last Sunday — Robinson has crossed the 100-yard mark in a game, and he’s netted a modest 2.98 YAC per attempt. Also, his 53 total missed tackles forced is No. 6 among all NFL backs, and he’s numero uno in total yards created. The Giants have tightened in the trenches of late, checking in at No. 10 in rush EPA defense over the last five weeks. However, they’ve given up a healthy 4.79 yards per carry and 114.5 rushing yards per game to RBs. On what should be roughly an 18-22 carry workload, Bijan blasts his way to the century mark.
BetAlytics grade: B-
5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 61.5 receiving yards vs. Vikings (-115, BetMGM)
Sometimes lines inexplicably move in a direction that defies belief. Take for example, JSN’s receiving yards against Minnesota. The number opened at 64.5 on BetMGM and unbelievably shifted three full yards southward in less than 24 hours. Why? This -EV bettor has no earthly idea. Maybe oddsmakers slugged back gallons of holiday sauce. Whether on the standard line or ladder market, Smith-Njigba has a convincing case to cash. The Seahawks’ primary slot receiver is No. 2 in total route wins and No. 6 in YAC, and most deliciously, his matchup is quite exploitable. No NFL defense has surrendered more WR yards than Minnesota. In total, 16 wideouts have eclipsed 61.5 yards against the Vikings. Even better, the primary projected assignment, cornerback Byron Murphy, has conceded the fifth-most yards of any DB. With Geno Smith expected to play, JSN acquires the necessary yardage in his eighth-straight game.
BetAlytics grade: B-
Season record: 37-38, +0.43 units