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No. 3 Texas (10-1) at No. 20 Texas A&M (8-3)
Date: Saturday, November 30
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
The most important game of rivalry week is a renewal of Texas vs. Texas A&M on Saturday night at Kyle Field. It’s been 13 years since the Longhorns and Aggies played each other in football when both teams were still in the Big 12.
The showdown’s stakes ramped up due to a number of upsets across the SEC last Saturday.
Ole Miss and Alabama got eliminated from the SEC championship game after both were upset by Florida and Oklahoma, respectively, and Texas A&M lost 43-41 to Auburn in a quadruple overtime thriller. Those results allowed Georgia to clinch a spot in the conference title game, where the Bulldogs will play the winner of Longhorns-Aggies.
The pick — Texas A&M +5.5 (-110, ESPN BET)
Last week, I previewed Texas A&M’s game at Auburn, and my pick was the Auburn moneyline. I had some doubts about how the Aggies would play in a road game at night, and the Tigers have been one of the unluckiest teams in the country this season. I also noted that I would very likely be betting on Texas A&M against Texas, and that is something I have already done.
I’ve long had concerns about Texas, and I still have questions about Steve Sarkisian’s team despite its 10-1 record. The biggest names the Longhorns beat were Michigan and Oklahoma, which just clinched bowl eligibility this past week. Texas also has a recent win against a resurgent Florida, but the Gators were down to their third-string quarterback and had just suffered a hard-fought loss to Georgia.
Speaking of Georgia: Before this week, facing the Bulldogs at home was the Longhorns’ biggest game of the regular season — and Texas lost 30-15. Quinn Ewers and the offense couldn’t get anything going, and at one point, Sarkisian benched Ewers in favor of Arch Manning.
Ewers has had a pedestrian season compared to his preseason expectations, and he is now dealing with an ankle injury. Sarkisian might be tempted to turn to Manning if Ewers doesn’t look effective, but that would be a really difficult environment for the redshirt freshman.
While I do have some questions about the Aggies and their lack of quality wins, I was impressed with how they responded against Auburn last Saturday after falling behind 21-0. They fought back and had the lead in the final minute before a late Auburn field goal forced overtime.
Freshman QB Marcel Reed isn’t a polished product, but his threat to run gives Texas A&M an element that Conner Weigman couldn’t provide. I trust Aggies head coach Mike Elko to create a defensive game plan against a Longhorns offense that has struggled at times to run the ball.
With so much on the line Saturday night in College Station, I like the underdog to cover this number and have a chance to win outright.
Season record: 18-17, -0.21 units