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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Quentin Johnston OVER 21.5 yards longest catch vs. Ravens (-114, FanDuel)
Similar to your mom peeling out to the nearest department store for a smokin’ good Black Friday deal on a $5 waffle iron, Johnston has speed for days.
The once-ridiculed former TCU Horned Frog has made a quantum leap in his production and overall efficiency. Whether on short-field screens or tightropes outside the numbers, the Chargers wide receiver has often consumed chunks of real estate.
In eight games this season, Johnston has averaged a sizable 16.1 yards per reception, posted 2.00 yards per route run, totaled the 19th-highest yards per target (9.6) and recorded the fourth-best QB rating when targeted (131.1). Most importantly, for this gambler’s wallet, he’s hauled in a catch of 22 or more yards six times, four of which have come this month.
Even your football-uninterested relatives who awkwardly make conversation around the holidays know about Baltimore’s defensive ills. The Ravens secondary, though displaying improvement of late, is one of the most cordial units in the NFL. John Harbaugh’s unit ranks No. 28 in dropback EPA defense, surrendering 7.73 passing yards per attempt, 304.5 passing yards per game and the fourth-most air yards per game.
Most promisingly, Johnstone is slated to exchange pleasantries with cornerback Brandon Stephens, one of the friendliest defenders in the league. The Ravens DB has allowed a 68.1% catch rate, 111.6 passer rating, the second-most receiving yards (673) and 15th-highest YAC to his assignments. Tasty.
Before the must-get sales begin, Johnston is seemingly a doorbuster deal at the number listed above. The matchup is too tantalizing to sit out.
Be a Bolt, Quentin.
Prop season record: 12-17 -6.15 units
SGP play — Justin Herbert 15+ rushing yards, Lamar Jackson 35+ rushing yards, Will Dissly 3+ receptions (+160, ESPN Bet)
Justin Herbert 15+ rushing yards. With his high-ankle issue long in the past, the finely coiffed Chargers quarterback has let his hair down on the ground in recent weeks. Over his last four games, he’s dashed for 37.0 rushing yards per game, obliterating the needed number three times. His increased scrambling propensity should come in handy against an aggressive Baltimore front seven that has helped generate the fifth-most pocket pressures (106). In total, the Charm City reps have only allowed 12.5 rushing yards per game to QBs. Still, given Herbert’s recent ground success, he should become the sixth QB to dash for at least 15 rushing yards against the Ravens.
Lamar Jackson 35+ rushing yards. Betting on Jackson alt-rush yards is as automatic as pouring a fine tequila on a fall Thursday. His unscripted scampers, jaw-dropping start/stop abilities in the open field and defender-embarrassing shimmies always peak investor attention. Only Jalen Hurts has logged more runs on a per-game basis than Jackson (9.6) this season. However, no passer has registered more yards than the Baltimore QB (584, 53.1 per game). The Chargers haven’t collapsed many pockets, as evidenced by their No. 27 standing in pressure rate (18.7%), and they’ve given up the 10th-most rushing yards to the position. Bo Nix, Kyler Murray and, of all people, Will Levis accomplished what’s needed against the Bolts defense. The NFL’s most electric runner should do the same.
Will Dissly 3+ receptions. Ravens linebackers, prepare to get Diss-ed. The chemistry between the Chargers tight end and Herbert has bubbled. Quickly becoming a preferred option in the intermediate route game, Dissly has enticed 38 targets and caught at least three passes five times since Week 6. Baltimore has allowed the 10th-fewest TE receptions, but, in total, 10 plus-sized weapons have reeled in three or more passes against the Ravens. Roping in the ascending pass catcher seems like a wise move. Yep, famous last words.
SGP season record: 13-17, +1.67 units