Texas A&M vs. Auburn prediction and best bet

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No. 15 Texas A&M (8-2) at Auburn (4-6)
Date: Saturday, November 23
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The pick — Auburn ML (+118, Caesars)

At the time of this writing, I will take Auburn on the moneyline because the current point spread is 2.5. But if you can find +3 before kickoff, I would take points for the security.

Regardless, I believe Hugh Freeze and the Tigers will beat Texas A&M as a home underdog.

It’s pretty telling that a 4-6 Auburn squad is less than a field goal underdog against 8-2 Texas A&M. A big reason for that is how unlucky the Tigers have been this season. Before last week’s 48-14 win over UL Monroe, they had three wins but 5.7 expected wins, according to CollegeFootballData.com.

I dug through Auburn’s box scores and discovered it has had a very bizarre season in which it has found ways to lose games. The Tigers committed five turnovers in each of their losses to California and Arkansas. They also somehow gave up a 21-10 fourth-quarter lead to Oklahoma in large part because of a late pick six.

In a 21-17 defeat at Missouri, Auburn squandered a 17-3 cushion when Mizzou QB Brady Cook returned from the hospital mid-game after suffering an ankle injury. In the Tigers’ last loss, they fell 17-7 at home against Vanderbilt despite out-gaining the Commodores by 100 yards. Mixed in was a 31-13 rout by Georgia.

If a couple plays went Auburn’s way, it could have six or seven victories and would possibly be the favorite against the Aggies.

The Tigers have an experienced quarterback in Payton Thorne and a rising star in freshman wide receiver Cam Coleman, who had a highlight reel catch last week during a three-touchdown day.

Mike Elko and Texas A&M deserve a lot of credit for a 8-2 season after some really troubling years under Jimbo Fisher. However, part of the reason for the Aggies’ success is their schedule.

Texas A&M has avoided the five highest-ranked SEC teams in Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss so far. The Aggies will renew their rivalry against Texas at home next Saturday in a game that will likely have huge implications for the SEC championship game.

Texas A&M’s best win was a 38-23 home victory against LSU, when the Aggies were outplayed for most of the game before inserting Marcel Reed under center to lean on the QB run game. They then proceeded to lose 44-20 at South Carolina, as Reed fell back to earth.

There’s a good chance I will be on Texas A&M plus the point next week against a Texas team that has also benefitted from a favorable schedule. But for this week, I have serious questions about how the Aggies will perform in a night game on the road against an Auburn team that is better than its record.

Season record: 16-16, -1.29 units