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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Aaron Jones OVER 17.5 rushing attempts (+100, FanDuel)
He may not resemble a Clydesdale like the star running back on the other sideline portrays, but Jones is a workhorse who earns his oats with every tote.
In Kevin O'Connell's offense, the Vikings starting RB is the definition of “Steady Eddie.” Justin Jefferson understandably and deservedly earns the headlines, but Senor Sombrero quietly and consistently cha-chas through tacklers and moves the chains. This season, he has earned 70.5% of the team’s opportunity share, netting a dynamite 3.14 yards after contact per attempt (RB22), forcing 21 missed tackles (RB16) and accumulating the 13th-most yards created.
Most importantly, Jones is rarely supplanted by backup Ty Chandler. Last week against the Rams, for example, the former Packer played 91.8% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps in a 30-20 road defeat. Overall, he's carried the rock at least 18 times in three of his last five games.
When it comes to rushing attempt props, game flow is everything. With the Vikings favored by 5 1/2 points at home, they should, at a minimum, be highly competitive. If they build a lead in the second half, Jones is sure to bleed the clock by tallying seconds-sapping carries.
Indianapolis, which has given up 4.38 yards per carry and 123.3 rushing yards per game to running backs, has allowed three rushers to reach 18 attempts. Given Jones’ exhaustive role and presumed positive script, he should just creep over the proposed total.
Prop season record: 11-13 -2.90 units
SGP play — Justin Jefferson 60+ receiving yards, Joe Flacco 200+ passing yards, Jonathan Taylor 50+ rushing yards (+123, FanDuel)
Justin Jefferson 60+ receiving yards. As his flashy bling clearly shows, Jefferson oozes swagger, and his box-score returns always back it up. He’s arguably the best wide receiver in the game, ranking well inside the position’s top 20 in yards per route run (3.05), yards per target (10.8), yards per reception (15.8), yards after catch (173) and QB passer rating when targeted (131.7). Almost uncontainable, Jefferson has topped 60 receiving yards in six straight contests. Expected to clash most often with cornerback Jaylon Jones, JJ should emerge victorious quite often. Jones has surrendered a 61.0 catch percentage and the 15th-most receiving yards (352) of any NFL DB this year. Averaging 92.3 receiving yards in his seven games, Jefferson achieving only 60 would be an off night. Bring the “Purple Rain.”
Joe Flacco 200+ passing yards. The ancient quarterback may have once twirled spirals to giant ground sloths some 13,000 years ago, but when pressed into action this season, he’s proven to be effective for the Colts. Shane Steichen’s unplugging of Anthony Richardson was sorely needed. Clearly a more accurate QB despite his advanced age, Flacco ranks top-20 in three different completion percentage categories. Also No. 5 in air yards per attempt, he can still spin a solid deep ball. The 39-yeaer-old has only eclipsed 200 passing yards once in three games, and Minnesota is No. 5 in pass EPA defense. However, six QBs have thrown for more than 200 yards against Brian Flores’ defense, which has given up 284.4 passing yards per game. Turn back the hands of time, Joe.
Jonathan Taylor 50+ rushing yards. Saddle up the Colt. With the holiday season essentially here, Indy’s workhorse is fully prepared to pull the Budweiser beer wagon. In five games, Taylor has coasted past 50 rushing yards four times. Though he’s only forced a missed tackle on 15.2% of his carries, his 3.10 yards after contact attempt speaks to his hard-nose running ability. Against the Vikings’ No. 1 rush EPA defense, Taylor’s matchup may seem daunting. However, four running backs have cracked the 50-yard mark against Minnesota, which has surrendered 4.36 yards per carry to RBs. On a likely 15-plus carries, the Clydesdale delivers.
SGP season record: 9-15, -3.19 units