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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Dalton Schultz OVER 43.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Are football fans trapped in some prime-time horror flick? Once again, we’re forced to endure another New York-based franchise with both legs gruesomely in the wood chipper.
Hey, television executives: There are far more interesting teams located outside the Big Apple.
Given the smug, know-it-all and never-at-fault villainous nature of Aaron Rodgers, watching the Jets crash and burn nine weeks into the season is a wonderful-to-witness catastrophe. Somewhere, axed former head coach Robert Saleh is giddily chuckling. When you’re chopped down by the pathetic Patriots — after you pulled out all the stops to acquire Davante Adams, no less — it perfectly sums up just how disastrous the season has been.
With New York’s fallen-off wheels floating in the East River, Schultz is a recommended play.
Considering Stefon Diggs (torn ACL) and targets hog Nico Collins (hamstring) are out of action, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud must rely on Schultz, Tank Dell and a bunch of ragtags among the receivers. This season, Schultz has lured only 4.6 targets per game, but his rather uneventful 14.2% target share is sure to spike. Against the Jets, a 35-40 route game with 7-9 looks is entirely buyable.
The Puddle Jumpers are a respectable No. 13 in pass EPA defense. Against tight ends, they’ve surrendered 4.5 receptions and 42.3 yards per game. Only three plus-sized weapons have reached 44 yards against them, but all of those performances have come in the last three weeks.
Schultz, who’s top-eight at the position in total air yards and aDOT (8.0), has underwhelmed. However, given the ripe opportunity against a team already six feet under, he should yield nothing but treats on Halloween night.
Spook the sportsbooks, gamers.
Prop season record: 11-12 -1.75 units
SGP play — Texans-Jets UNDER 52.5 points, Joe Mixon 50+ rushing yards, Breece Hall 25+ receiving yards (+120, BetMGM)
Texans-Jets UNDER 52.5 points. Our friends at BetAlytics have the matchup as a slight OVER lean with a 42.8 points projection. That’s why building a proper cushion is an advisable move. According to the EPA data, both teams rank in the NFL’s bottom half in per play offense, with New York at No. 18 and Houston at No. 20. Analyzing the trends reveals that Aaron Rodgers and company are 4-3 to the over-under this season while C.J. Stroud’s squad is 2-6 on the over-under. Most damaging for the Texans are Diggs’ derailment and Collins’ continued absence as their absences greatly limit Houston offensively. A 24-17 finish is entirely believable — and that could be on the high end.
Joe Mixon 50+ rushing yards. The former Bengal running back has been on a mission to consistently rack measurable ground yards each and every week. Earning close to 75% of the team’s opportunity share, Mixon has operated as road grater in his five games with Houston, exceeding 100 or more yards four times. The only shortfall came in Week 2 due to an ankle injury. With 50 carries logged over the last two weeks, he should again whinny as the workhorse. In gap converge terms, the Jets’ defensive line has cratered. They are currently No. 21 in rush EPA defense, allowing 4.14 yards per carry and 135.2 rushing yards per game. In total, five RBs have cracked the 50-yard mark against them. Given Mixon’s break-tackle ability (3.34 YAC/attempt, RB15) and his heavy workload, he should bully his way to the necessary number.
Breece Hall 25+ receiving yards. From the WINDOWWWW, to the HALL! Skeet, skeet, skeet — this bettor is always a willing investor in receiving yards tied to the Jets RB. One of the most reliable pass-catching backs in the game, he has run more routes than any rusher in the league, averaging 29.7 per contest. Also netting an appealing 9.6 yards per catch and ranking No. 3 among eligible RBs in target share (16.3%), Hall is always a viable 4-6 catch candidate. Aaron Jones is the only RB to eclipse 25 or more receiving yards against the Texans this season. However, they’ve not exactly faced the most multi-faceted running backs. Hall, who has topped 25 or more receiving yards in five of eight contests, should bring the noise in the passing game, regardless of game flow or script.
SGP season record: 9-14, -2.19 units