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Louisville (5-3) at No. 11 Clemson (6-1)
Date: Saturday, November 2
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
The pick — Louisville +10.5 (-110, BetMGM)
The biggest reason I like the underdog in this game is the uncertainty over Clemson. Are the Tigers as good as they have looked during their six-game win streak?
Dabo Swinney has silenced critics about not using the transfer portal because Clemson isn’t just winning games — it’s also dominating on the field. The Tigers’ smallest margin of victory has been 16 points in a 29-13 triumph against Florida State, and they have also beaten Appalachian State (66-20), North Carolina State (59-35), Stanford (40-14), Wake Forest (49-14) and Virginia (48-31).
It hasn’t been the toughest slate since Clemson lost 34-3 to Georgia in Week 1. So I think it’s fair to be skeptical about how good the Tigers really are and if they are overvalued.
I also like the idea of betting on their opponent, which is catching a big number.
Louisville is having a disappointing year after reaching the ACC championship game in 2023 during head coach Jeff Brohm’s first season at his alma mater. The Cardinals have fallen to Notre Dame, SMU and Miami this year, but I wouldn’t criticize Louisville too much for losing to three current top-20 teams that have combined for only two defeats.
Brohm is known for his offensive scheming and play calling, and he has a history of thriving in the underdog role. In 2018, his Purdue team beat a then-No. 2-ranked Ohio State 49-20.
The Cardinals are led by 25-year-old quarterback Tyler Shough, who won’t be intimidated by a night game on the road. And I trust Brohm’s offensive coaching to be enough to keep this game close.
In November, Clemson will show just how good it is. The Tigers begin the month with Saturday’s home game against Louisville and then take road trips to Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh before finishing with back-to-back home dates against Citadel and South Carolina.
On Saturday, I wouldn’t be surprised if Clemson struggled for the first time in two months against Brohm's Cardinals.
Season record: 11-12, -1.93 units