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No. 8 LSU (6-1) at No. 14 Texas A&M (6-1)
Date: Saturday, October 26
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
About a month ago, it appeared the SEC championship would be a five-team race between Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and Ole Miss. The group came out of non-conference play unscathed and were all ranked within the top six of the AP Top 25 poll going into Week 5.
LSU and Texas A&M appeared to be afterthoughts as SEC title contenders after losing in Week 1 to USC and Notre Dame, respectively. However since then, the two teams have gone on winning streaks, and with chaos at the top of the conference, the Tigers and Aggies find themselves as the only two unbeaten teams in SEC play going into Saturday night’s battle in College Station.
The pick — LSU vs. Texas A&M UNDER 54 total points (-110, BetRivers)
The perception of LSU, for at least the last season and a half, has been a team that boasts a prolific offense but has a defense that lacks the ability to get many stops. The defensive struggles were on evident last year, while eventual Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels put up huge numbers throwing to fellow future NFL talents in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.
To fix the defense, LSU brought Missouri defensive coordinator Blake Baker back to the school and the state that he is very familiar with. Baker’s defense had some struggles early in the season, but it has shown improvement over the last two weeks when the Tigers edged Ole Miss 29-26 in overtime and stifled an Arkansas team that had two weeks to prepare in a 34-10 victory.
The LSU defense’s improvement and Texas A&M QB Conner Weigman’s inconsistency are the reasons why I like this game to go under.
Weigman had the game of his college career against Missouri, completing 18 of 22 passes for 276 yards in a 41-10 win, but the sophomore then came off the bye week by struggling and throwing two interceptions against a really weak Mississippi State defense in a 34-24 victory. Weigman also played poorly in the season opener against Notre Dame and missed time with a shoulder injury.
I also like the Texas A&M defense to play well in what should be an intriguing matchup between its defensive line and an LSU offensive line with a pair of future NFL tackles in Will Campbell and Emery Jones. I am high on Tigers QB Garrett Nussmeier, but I’m going to give the edge to the Aggies defense playing in a night game at home.
Texas A&M’s defensive-minded head coach Mike Elko served as LSU head coach Brian Kelly’s defensive coordinator in 2017 at Notre Dame. I usually favor the defensive coach in a matchup with familiarity, especially with a coach like Elko who gets the most out of the talent he has to work with.
You can make an argument for either side in this game, especially now that the Tigers have been bet from +3.5 to +2.5 early in the week. I do feel best about this game being low-scoring with its huge implications for the 12-team College Football Playoff. I wouldn’t be surprised to see conservative play calling and safe decision making from both coaches.
That would help the case for the under.
Season record: 11-10, +0.42 units