SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.
Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Najee Harris race to 60 rushing yards (-105, BetMGM)
An elderly golden retriever exhaustively strolling down the street on a 90-degree day. That’s the visual coursing through the cerebral cortex whenever a long-haul prop tied to the Steelers running back is presented. Yes, this bet is likely to take an eternity to cash — Harris ranks an unexciting RB41 in YAC per attempt (2.40) — but with a very buyable -105 juice, it’s worth the slow burn.
With the absence of Jaylen Warren (knee) and Dallas’ unimpressive stable of RBs, there are few threats to prevent this bet from cashing. Justin Fields is in the conversation, but his rushing high watermark this season is 57 yards, which was logged in Week 1 at Atlanta. And don’t buy for a second that Rico Dowdle will transform into Emmitt Smith circa 1995, not against a Pittsburgh rush defense surrendering only 3.46 yards per carry to RBs.
Harris has eclipsed 60 rushing yards in three of his four games. Each time, he received at least 17 handoffs. Unless the Cowboys improbably bombard a top-six EPA per play Steelers D, a similar volume is on tap.
It may be a war of attrition — even against a Cowpokes unit ranking No. 32 in rush EPA D — but Harris should eventually cross the finish line. Keep in mind: LIttle D has conceded 4.60 yards per carry and 124.8 rushing yards per game to RBs.
For this generally restless individual, patience hopefully pays off.
Prop season record: 7-7 -0.35 units
SGP — Dak Prescott UNDER 270.5 passing yards, Justin Fields 25+ rushing yards, Steelers ML (+124, DraftKings)
Dak Prescott UNDER 270.5 passing yards. Even with arguably the NFL’s best wide receiver, Prescott has been the definition of “painfully mediocre.” According to Pro Football Focus, he ranks No. 31 in adjusted completion percentage and has performed at a below-average level whether against man (No. 18 completion percentage) or zone (No. 21 completion percentage). His No. 3 standing in total air yards suggests brighter days ahead, but don’t expect a sunny result on Sunday night. Pittsburgh checks in at No. 10 in pass EPA D, yielding a mere 197.3 passing yards per game. You could argue the Steelers haven’t exactly faced a murder’s row of passers (Kirk Cousins, Bo Nix, Justin Herbert and Joe Flacco), but due in large part to the outstanding safety play of Minkah Fitzpatrick and DeShon Elliott, they have allowed few explosive pass plays. For the third time this season, Dak tucks under the alt passing yards total above.
Justin Fields 25+ rushing yards. Traded by the Bears for a six-pack of Schlitz and a bag of Combos in March, Fields has performed terrifically in his new digs. Unbelievably, he ranks No. 2 in adjusted completion percentage and top-10 in four other completion percentage categories. His vast improvement as a passer hasn’t come at a ground production cost. On 38 total carries, he’s averaged 36.3 rushing yards per game. He’s also forced an impressive seven missed tackles. Dallas, with one of the most aggressive defensive fronts, has applied pocket pressure on 30.5% of opponent dropbacks, the fourth-highest amount in the league. Whether on designed or unscripted runs, Fields sprints past 25 yards for the fourth time in five games.
Steelers ML. Twirl those Terrible Towels, black and gold clad fans. In a battle of two iconic franchises, bank on the slight favorite to staunchly defend its home turf. The Cowboys are an unblemished 2-0 in road matchups, but those victories came against the struggling Browns and Giants. Pittsburgh’s stellar defense (No. 6 EPA per play) and Dallas’ lack of robustness in the category (No. 23) should prove to be the greatest difference maker. Throw in the Steelers being 16-8-1 straight up inside Acrisure Stadium the last three years, and it only spikes moneyline confidence.
SGP season record: 4-10, -4.70 units